Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 50% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg meet at Sarpsborg Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 18 July 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sarpsborg 08 FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sarpsborg 08 FF at Sarpsborg Stadion this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Rosenborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Sarpsborg 08 FF have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 7 meetings, with Rosenborg managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sarpsborg 08 FF and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Sarpsborg 08 FF half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Rosenborg half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% and Rosenborg 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Rosenborg 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.67 xG and Rosenborg 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.055 / defence 0.983 | Rosenborg attack 0.888 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.275. Data: 43 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 45 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 25%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.00 | Draw 4.17 | Rosenborg 4.00. Sarpsborg 08 FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sarpsborg 08 FF at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sarpsborg 08 FF if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Rosenborg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jul 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.67 / Rosenborg 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.055 / def 0.983 | Rosenborg attack 0.888 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Rosenborg xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 18 July 2025 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 50% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Record (7 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 4W | Draws 2 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-W-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sarpsborg 08 FF's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Rosenborg's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.89x) against Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 43/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
50%
1.98
24%
4.12
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
2.78
1.11
Rosenborg xG
1.98
50%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
19%
5.32
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
5%
20.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.11 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sarpsborg 08 FF come into this having played 43 games, going 15W 13D 15L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-D. The sample for Sarpsborg 08 FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.77 PPG from 43 outings (22W 10D 11L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Rosenborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rosenborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Sarpsborg 08 FF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home form reads 6W 5D 10L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.56 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rosenborg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Blended
Rosenborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 15W 13D 15L in their last 43 games (1.35 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 22W 10D 11L in their last 43 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Rosenborg away?
Rosenborg's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.10 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Sarpsborg 08 FF or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sarpsborg 08 FF won 0-3 on 25 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sarpsborg 08 FF
3
Draws
2
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 5, Rosenborg have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Rosenborg 2-1 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sarpsborg 08 FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 67%, Rosenborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 62% (Rosenborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's games and 52% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 62% of Rosenborg's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 14, as Sarpsborg 08 FF and Rosenborg drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.67 xG and Rosenborg 1.11 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Rosenborg outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.05 / defence 0.98 against Rosenborg attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 43/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 50% | Draw 24% | Rosenborg 25%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%, Rosenborg 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Rosenborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rosenborg arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.35. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.