Brann 0-3 Molde – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Brann at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brann vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Brann Stadion plays host to Brann versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Thursday 29 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brann have posted 5W 3D 2L at Brann Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Molde's overall Eliteserien record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Molde's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.30 PPG for Brann against 1.80 for Molde. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Molde hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 7 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 1–2 with Molde winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Molde have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 58% versus Molde 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Brann 60% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.53 xG and Molde 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.167 / defence 0.869 | Molde attack 0.917 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.404. Data: 39 Brann games / 38 Molde games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 47% | Draw 25% | Molde 28%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Molde 3.57. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Molde lead the H2H ledger, but Brann carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Molde 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 29 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 47% | Draw 25% | Molde 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Brann 1.53 / Molde 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.167 / def 0.869 | Molde attack 0.917 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Brann (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Molde xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Molde kick off?
Brann vs Molde kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 29 May 2025 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Molde?
Brann 0 - 3 Molde.
Where is Brann vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Molde part of?
Brann vs Molde is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 47% chance of winning, Molde a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Brann and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Molde?
Record (7 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 0 | Molde 6W.
What form are Brann and Molde in?
Brann (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Molde (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.17x the league average against Molde's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.53 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (0.92x) against Brann's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.92
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Brann xG
Total xG
2.65
1.12
Molde xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
15%
6.57
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Brann and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Brann and 1.12 for Molde, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brann's recent record stands at 36W 12D 12L from 60 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five.
Molde, meanwhile, have gone 30W 13D 17L across 60 games — 1.72 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.00 PPG for Brann against 1.72 for Molde. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brann have managed 21W 5D 4L from 30 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Molde's away record stands at 13W 7D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.15 scored and 1.25 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Molde in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 36W 12D 12L in their last 60 games (2.00 PPG), while Molde have gone 30W 13D 17L in their last 60 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Molde away?
Brann's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.27 PPG; Molde away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Brann or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Molde in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 4-0 on 16 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Brann
0
Draws
8
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Molde?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 2, Molde have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Molde 1-2 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 60%, Molde 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Brann and 63% for Molde. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Brann's games and 57% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Brann's matches and 63% of Molde's.
Do Brann and Molde tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Molde in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Molde run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Brann.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Brann 0-3 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.53 xG and Molde 1.12 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Brann fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Molde outscored their 1.12 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.17 / defence 0.87 against Molde attack 0.92 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 47% | Draw 25% | Molde 28%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Molde win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Molde 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 2.00 PPG, Molde 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Molde win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Molde (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.