Bodo/Glimt 5-4 Viking – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Viking encounter.

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Analysis

Viking make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bodo/Glimt's home record at Aspmyra Stadion: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 3.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Viking have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

Viking away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 1.70 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Viking's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Viking in 90%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bodo/Glimt, 1 for Viking and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Viking winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 57% and Viking 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 60% | Viking 71%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 3.21 xG and Viking 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.493 / defence 0.927 | Viking attack 1.051 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.411. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.493 — their λ of 3.21 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Bodo/Glimt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Bodo/Glimt games / 58 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 73% | Draw 14% | Viking 13%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.37 | Draw 7.14 | Viking 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (73%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (3.21 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

On the goals line, Poisson's 4.58 combined xG gives a 84% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 72%. Form rates corroborate: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Viking 90% BTTS from recent games.

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