Sarpsborg 08 FF 2-2 Kristiansund BK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 67%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 29 as Sarpsborg 08 FF welcome Kristiansund BK to Sarpsborg Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Sarpsborg Stadion, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Kristiansund BK — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kristiansund BK's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sarpsborg 08 FF at 1.80 PPG versus Kristiansund BK's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Kristiansund BK in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 1 for Kristiansund BK and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2022, ended 3–2 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Kristiansund BK trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sarpsborg 08 FF 64% versus Kristiansund BK 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60% | Kristiansund BK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.37 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.108 / defence 1.091 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.667 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.764 / away 1.411. Kristiansund BK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Sarpsborg 08 FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 58 Kristiansund BK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% | Draw 18% | Kristiansund BK 15%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Kristiansund BK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sarpsborg 08 FF are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 70% | Kristiansund BK 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Sarpsborg Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% | Draw 18% | Kristiansund BK 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 58% | xG Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.37 / Kristiansund BK 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.108 / def 1.091 | Kristiansund BK attack 0.667 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.764 / away 1.411 • Poisson stance: Sarpsborg 08 FF (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Kristiansund BK xG
58%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kick off?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What was the final score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2 - 2 Kristiansund BK.
Where is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK being played?
The match is being played at Sarpsborg Stadion.
What competition is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK part of?
Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our statistical model gives Sarpsborg 08 FF a 67% chance of winning, Kristiansund BK a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Sarpsborg 08 FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK will score (BTTS).
Will Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Record (4 meetings): Sarpsborg 08 FF 2W | Draws 1 | Kristiansund BK 1W.
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in?
Sarpsborg 08 FF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Kristiansund BK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF's attack at 1.11x the league average against Kristiansund BK's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kristiansund BK's attack versus Sarpsborg 08 FF's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (9.4%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sarpsborg 08 FF Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.54
15%
6.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Sarpsborg 08 FF xG
Total xG
3.39
1.03
Kristiansund BK xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.54
18%
Draw
6.75
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
9%
10.67
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
1%
72.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.4 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Sarpsborg 08 FF and 1.03 for Kristiansund BK, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 58 outings, Sarpsborg 08 FF have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 22W 10D 26L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Kristiansund BK's form line: 19W 10D 29L from 58 games, 1.16 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sarpsborg 08 FF on 1.31 PPG, Kristiansund BK on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sarpsborg 08 FF have posted 1.48 PPG from 29 outings (12W 7D 10L).
On the road, Kristiansund BK have gone 5W 4D 20L from 29 away games — 0.66 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kristiansund BK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sarpsborg 08 FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sarpsborg 08 FF are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Kristiansund BK are on 1.29 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sarpsborg 08 FF have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sarpsborg 08 FF
Current Season
Kristiansund BK
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK in coming into this match?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 22W 10D 26L in their last 58 games (1.31 PPG), while Kristiansund BK have gone 19W 10D 29L in their last 58 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home or Kristiansund BK away?
Sarpsborg 08 FF's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sarpsborg 08 FF at home: 1.48 PPG; Kristiansund BK away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sarpsborg 08 FF's record when hosting Kristiansund BK specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sarpsborg 08 FF
4
Draws
4
Kristiansund BK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
From 10 meetings on record, Sarpsborg 08 FF have won 2, Kristiansund BK have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Kristiansund BK 0-0 Sarpsborg 08 FF.
Who has won more matches between Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK?
Kristiansund BK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sarpsborg 08 FF see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Kristiansund BK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sarpsborg 08 FF 59%, Kristiansund BK 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Sarpsborg 08 FF) and 59% (Kristiansund BK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Kristiansund BK in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sarpsborg 08 FF home games / Kristiansund BK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sarpsborg 08 FF play Kristiansund BK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's recent matches and 45% of Kristiansund BK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Sarpsborg 08 FF's matches and 59% of Kristiansund BK's.
Do Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK tend to score early?
Sarpsborg 08 FF have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Kristiansund BK in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sarpsborg 08 FF and Kristiansund BK finished level at 2-2 at Sarpsborg Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sarpsborg 08 FF 2.37 xG and Kristiansund BK 1.03 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kristiansund BK outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.11 / defence 1.09 against Kristiansund BK attack 0.67 / defence 1.21, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sarpsborg 08 FF 67% | Draw 18% | Kristiansund BK 15%, with Sarpsborg 08 FF to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sarpsborg 08 FF 60%, Kristiansund BK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sarpsborg 08 FF's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.31 PPG, Kristiansund BK 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.