Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Viking – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bodo/Glimt vs Viking encounter.

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Analysis

Viking make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bodo/Glimt's home record over their last 10 home games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Viking have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Viking away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Bodo/Glimt's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Viking's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 5.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended Bodo/Glimt 2–3 Viking — a Viking win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 62%.

Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 37%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 65% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 72% | Viking 63%). Note also that Viking surrender HT leads in 42% of cases while Bodo/Glimt recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.75 xG and Viking 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.116 / defence 0.949 | Viking attack 1.008 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.432. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 31 games and Viking's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 47% | Draw 23% | Viking 30%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.15 | Draw 4.29 | Viking 3.32. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.75 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.12 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 5.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Viking 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

The Poisson model's sample (Bodo/Glimt 31 games, Viking 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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