Ham-Kam 0-1 Molde – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Molde fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Molde in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ham-Kam have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Molde (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Molde's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Ham-Kam, 1.40 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Ham-Kam 0W, Molde 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Molde — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; they lead at the break 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 57% versus Molde 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 57% | Molde 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.58 xG and Molde 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.990 / defence 1.033 | Molde attack 1.080 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.363. Data: 31 Ham-Kam games / 31 Molde games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 24% | Molde 37%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Molde 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ham-Kam as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 40% | Molde 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Molde | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 24% | Molde 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Ham-Kam 1.58 / Molde 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.990 / def 1.033 | Molde attack 1.080 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Molde xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Molde kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Molde kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Ham-Kam 0 - 1 Molde.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Molde being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Molde part of?
Ham-Kam vs Molde is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 40% chance of winning, Molde a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ham-Kam and Molde will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Molde have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Molde?
Record (4 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 2 | Molde 2W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Molde in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Molde (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ham-Kam's attack at 0.99x the league average against Molde's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Molde's attack (1.08x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
40%
2.53
24%
4.20
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
3.10
1.52
Molde xG
2.53
40%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
21%
4.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Molde expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.52 for Molde, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Molde?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Ham-Kam have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 16W 17D 27L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Molde's form line: 40W 9D 11L from 60 games, 2.15 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Molde are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ham-Kam.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ham-Kam have posted 1.30 PPG from 30 outings (10W 9D 11L).
On the road, Molde have gone 19W 5D 6L from 30 away games — 2.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Molde come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Molde are on 2.27 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Molde in 60%.
Defensively: Molde in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Current Season
Molde
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Molde in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 16W 17D 27L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Molde have gone 40W 9D 11L in their last 60 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Molde away?
Molde's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.30 PPG; Molde away: 2.07 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Molde been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Molde in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Molde go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Molde won 5-0 on 9 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Molde — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
6
Molde
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Molde?
From 9 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 1, Molde have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Molde last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Molde 4-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Molde?
Molde have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Molde are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 47%, Molde 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Ham-Kam) and 67% (Molde). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Molde away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Molde?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Ham-Kam's games and 63% of Molde's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ham-Kam vs Molde usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Ham-Kam's matches and 67% of Molde's.
Do Ham-Kam and Molde tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Molde in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Molde defy the odds to beat Ham-Kam 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Molde beat Ham-Kam 0-1 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.58 xG and Molde 1.52 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ham-Kam fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against Molde attack 1.08 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 40% | Draw 24% | Molde 37%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Molde win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 57%, Molde 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Molde's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Molde arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Molde (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.