Bodo/Glimt vs Molde – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bodo/Glimt face Molde.

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Analysis

Molde make the trip to Aspmyra Stadion to face Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Wednesday 14 April 2021 at 18:00 UK time.

Form

Bodo/Glimt (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Bodo/Glimt have gone 10W 0D 0L in their last 10 home games (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.50 — Bodo/Glimt are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Molde's record over their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, Molde have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.50 for Bodo/Glimt, 2.50 for Molde — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Trading Data

Bodo/Glimt goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 87% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.

Molde goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bodo/Glimt 70% and Molde 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 90% | Molde 90%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.36 xG and Molde 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.372 / defence 0.888 | Molde attack 1.174 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack rating of 1.372 — their 2.36 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Bodo/Glimt's last 30 games and Molde's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 58% | Draw 21% | Molde 21%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.73 | Draw 4.77 | Molde 4.72. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 69% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% — both xG figures (2.36 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bodo/Glimt's last 10 home games and Molde's last 10 away games) averaging 4.2 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bodo/Glimt 50% (last 10 home games) | Molde 90% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Bodo/Glimt 30 games, Molde 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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