Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rosenborg at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rosenborg host ODD Ballklubb at Lerkendal Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 15 April 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rosenborg stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rosenborg's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Lerkendal Stadion this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Rosenborg are significantly better at Lerkendal Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, ODD Ballklubb have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
ODD Ballklubb's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Rosenborg have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rosenborg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, ODD Ballklubb in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Rosenborg, 1 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2020, ended 4–1 with Rosenborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Rosenborg trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
ODD Ballklubb trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rosenborg 53% versus ODD Ballklubb 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rosenborg 63% | ODD Ballklubb 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rosenborg 2.04 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rosenborg attack 1.064 / defence 0.952 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.042 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.796 / away 1.349. Data: 30 Rosenborg games / 30 ODD Ballklubb games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Rosenborg 53% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 24%. Fair-value odds: Rosenborg 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | ODD Ballklubb 4.17. Rosenborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.04 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rosenborg are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rosenborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Rosenborg 70% | ODD Ballklubb 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Lerkendal Stadion • Kick-off: Thursday 15 Apr 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rosenborg 53% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 65% | xG Rosenborg 2.04 / ODD Ballklubb 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Rosenborg attack 1.064 / def 0.952 | ODD Ballklubb attack 1.042 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.796 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Rosenborg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Rosenborg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
ODD Ballklubb xG
65%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 15 April 2021 at Lerkendal Stadion.
Where is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Lerkendal Stadion.
What competition is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Rosenborg a 53% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Rosenborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (2 meetings): Rosenborg 1W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 1W.
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in?
Rosenborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rosenborg's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Rosenborg's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rosenborg Win
53%
1.90
23%
4.27
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Rosenborg xG
Total xG
3.38
1.34
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
13%
7.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.25
3%
32.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Rosenborg and 1.34 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Rosenborg have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 15W 7D 8L record — L-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
ODD Ballklubb's form line: 13W 4D 13L from 30 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rosenborg on 1.73 PPG, ODD Ballklubb on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rosenborg have posted 2.20 PPG from 15 outings (10W 3D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.73 PPG overall — Rosenborg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 5W 2D 8L from 15 away games — 1.13 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rosenborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rosenborg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.73 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rosenborg
Current Season
ODD Ballklubb
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Rosenborg have gone 15W 7D 8L in their last 30 games (1.73 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 13W 4D 13L in their last 30 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rosenborg at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Rosenborg's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rosenborg at home: 2.20 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.13 PPG.
Have Rosenborg or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rosenborg have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 August 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Rosenborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rosenborg's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Rosenborg
2
Draws
1
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Rosenborg have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 1-3 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
ODD Ballklubb are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rosenborg 67%, ODD Ballklubb 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Rosenborg and 53% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rosenborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; ODD Ballklubb in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rosenborg home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rosenborg play ODD Ballklubb?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rosenborg's games and 47% of ODD Ballklubb's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rosenborg vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Rosenborg's matches and 53% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Rosenborg have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Rosenborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg and ODD Ballklubb finished level at 0-0 at Lerkendal Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rosenborg 2.04 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.34 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Rosenborg fell 2.0 short of their projected output. ODD Ballklubb landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rosenborg attack 1.06 / defence 0.95 against ODD Ballklubb attack 1.04 / defence 1.07, drawn from 30/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rosenborg 53% | Draw 23% | ODD Ballklubb 24%, with Rosenborg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rosenborg 63%, ODD Ballklubb 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rosenborg 1.73 PPG, ODD Ballklubb 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.