Waalwijk 1-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Feyenoord (55%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Waalwijk face Feyenoord.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waalwijk and Feyenoord meet at Mandemakers Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 November 2023 at 17:45 UTC.
Current Form
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 games at Mandemakers Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Waalwijk are significantly better at Mandemakers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Feyenoord (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eredivisie outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feyenoord, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feyenoord's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Feyenoord are the stronger side — 1.40 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Feyenoord hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 4 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.2 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2023, ended 1–5 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waalwijk 54% versus Feyenoord 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waalwijk 65% | Feyenoord 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waalwijk 1.20 xG and Feyenoord 2.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waalwijk attack 0.922 / defence 1.042 | Feyenoord attack 1.475 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.639 / away 1.365. Feyenoord's defence strength of 0.796 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Feyenoord have an above-average attack strength of 1.475 — the away xG of 2.10 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 43 Waalwijk games / 44 Feyenoord games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waalwijk 19% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 55%. Fair-value odds: Waalwijk 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Feyenoord 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 2.10) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Waalwijk 50% | Feyenoord 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waalwijk vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mandemakers Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Nov 2023, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waalwijk 19% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 64% | xG Waalwijk 1.20 / Feyenoord 2.10 • Poisson strength factors: Waalwijk attack 0.922 / def 1.042 | Feyenoord attack 1.475 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.639 / away 1.365 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Waalwijk xG
Expected Goals
2.10
Feyenoord xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waalwijk vs Feyenoord kick off?
Waalwijk vs Feyenoord kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Mandemakers Stadion.
What was the final score in Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Waalwijk 1 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Waalwijk vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Mandemakers Stadion.
What competition is Waalwijk vs Feyenoord part of?
Waalwijk vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Waalwijk a 19% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Waalwijk and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Waalwijk vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Feyenoord?
Record (4 meetings): Waalwijk 0W | Draws 1 | Feyenoord 3W.
What form are Waalwijk and Feyenoord in?
Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 3.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.92x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.48x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 2.10.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
19%
5.29
26%
3.90
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.30
2.10
Feyenoord xG
5.29
19%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
12%
8.14
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
2%
43.10
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.7 | 8.1 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.8 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Waalwijk and 2.10 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waalwijk's recent record stands at 14W 8D 21L from 43 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feyenoord, meanwhile, have gone 31W 9D 3L across 43 games — 2.37 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Feyenoord is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Feyenoord by 1.21 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Waalwijk have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Waalwijk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Feyenoord's away record stands at 15W 4D 2L across 21 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waalwijk are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.53 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waalwijk
Blended
Feyenoord
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waalwijk and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Waalwijk have gone 14W 8D 21L in their last 43 games (1.16 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 31W 9D 3L in their last 43 (2.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waalwijk at home or Feyenoord away?
Feyenoord's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waalwijk at home: 1.71 PPG; Feyenoord away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Waalwijk or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waalwijk have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord have won the last 7 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-1 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waalwijk have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Feyenoord — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Waalwijk
1
Draws
7
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waalwijk and Feyenoord?
From 8 meetings on record, Waalwijk have won 0, Feyenoord have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waalwijk and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Feyenoord 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Waalwijk and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waalwijk 62%, Feyenoord 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Waalwijk and 67% for Feyenoord. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waalwijk home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waalwijk play Feyenoord?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Waalwijk's games and 67% of Feyenoord's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waalwijk vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Waalwijk's matches and 67% of Feyenoord's.
Do Waalwijk and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Waalwijk have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 95% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Waalwijk 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Waalwijk 1-2 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.20 xG and Feyenoord 2.10 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Feyenoord attack 1.48 / defence 0.80, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 19% | Draw 26% | Feyenoord 55%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 65%, Feyenoord 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waalwijk's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Feyenoord's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.37 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.