Sparta Rotterdam 2-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sparta Rotterdam at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sparta Rotterdam welcome Waalwijk to Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sparta Rotterdam — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 3W 3D 4L at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Waalwijk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Waalwijk's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sparta Rotterdam at 1.20 PPG versus Waalwijk's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sparta Rotterdam, 1 for Waalwijk and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sparta Rotterdam trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Waalwijk trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sparta Rotterdam 50% versus Waalwijk 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sparta Rotterdam 60% | Waalwijk 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sparta Rotterdam 1.65 xG and Waalwijk 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.900 / defence 1.022 | Waalwijk attack 0.744 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.389. Data: 43 Sparta Rotterdam games / 42 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 49% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 22%. Fair-value odds: Sparta Rotterdam 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Waalwijk 4.55. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sparta Rotterdam 50% | Waalwijk 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sparta Rotterdam 49% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sparta Rotterdam 1.65 / Waalwijk 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.900 / def 1.022 | Waalwijk attack 0.744 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.638 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Waalwijk xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk kick off?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What was the final score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Sparta Rotterdam 2 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel.
What competition is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk part of?
Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 49% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
Record (4 meetings): Sparta Rotterdam 0W | Draws 3 | Waalwijk 1W.
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk in?
Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sparta Rotterdam's attack at 0.90x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Sparta Rotterdam's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.46
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sparta Rotterdam xG
Total xG
2.71
1.06
Waalwijk xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
4%
23.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.06 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sparta Rotterdam's recent record stands at 19W 11D 12L from 42 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waalwijk, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 20L across 42 games — 1.19 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Waalwijk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sparta Rotterdam by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waalwijk heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sparta Rotterdam have managed 10W 5D 5L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waalwijk's away record stands at 3W 4D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Waalwijk's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sparta Rotterdam are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.36 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Waalwijk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Sparta Rotterdam have gone 19W 11D 12L in their last 42 games (1.62 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 14W 8D 20L in their last 42 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sparta Rotterdam at home or Waalwijk away?
Sparta Rotterdam's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.75 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Sparta Rotterdam or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sparta Rotterdam have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sparta Rotterdam's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Sparta Rotterdam
5
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Sparta Rotterdam have won 2, Waalwijk have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2025, when Sparta Rotterdam 1-1 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sparta Rotterdam see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sparta Rotterdam 55%, Waalwijk 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Sparta Rotterdam and 65% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waalwijk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sparta Rotterdam home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sparta Rotterdam play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Sparta Rotterdam's recent matches and 45% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sparta Rotterdam vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sparta Rotterdam's matches and 65% of Waalwijk's.
Do Sparta Rotterdam and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Sparta Rotterdam have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sparta Rotterdam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Waalwijk 2-0 at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Regular Season - 10, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sparta Rotterdam 1.65 xG and Waalwijk 1.06 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waalwijk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.90 / defence 1.02 against Waalwijk attack 0.74 / defence 1.12, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sparta Rotterdam 49% | Draw 29% | Waalwijk 22%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sparta Rotterdam 60%, Waalwijk 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Waalwijk's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.