Vitesse 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sparta Rotterdam make the trip to GelreDome to face Vitesse in Eredivisie (matchday 28). The match kicks off on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 18:45 UK time.
Form
Vitesse (all games): 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Vitesse's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Sparta Rotterdam have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Vitesse, 0.90 for Sparta Rotterdam — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Sparta Rotterdam have the stronger record — 4 wins to Vitesse's 0, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Vitesse 0–1 Sparta Rotterdam — a Sparta Rotterdam win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Sparta Rotterdam have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Vitesse — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vitesse 49% versus Sparta Rotterdam 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 52% | Sparta Rotterdam 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 0.98 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.705 / defence 1.023 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.868 / defence 0.862. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.354. Vitesse's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.98. Data: built from Vitesse's last 61 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 61.
Result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 3.50 | Draw 3.17 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Sparta Rotterdam 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Vitesse's last 10 home games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Vitesse 60% (last 10 home games) | Sparta Rotterdam 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 28 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 18:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 29% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Vitesse 0.98 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.705 / def 1.023 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.868 / def 0.862 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam FAQs
What time does Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 18:45 UK time on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Vitesse 1 - 4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 28) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 29% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 40% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Vitesse's attack at 0.70x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (0.87x) against Vitesse's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from Vitesse's last 61 games and Sparta Rotterdam's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
29%
3.50
32%
3.17
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.18
1.20
Sparta Rotterdam xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 13.6 | 8.2 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.20 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vitesse come into this having played 61 games, going 14W 15D 32L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Sparta Rotterdam sit at 1.52 PPG from 61 outings (26W 15D 20L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Sparta Rotterdam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Vitesse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Vitesse's home form reads 6W 11D 13L across their last 30 home games, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, Sparta Rotterdam have taken 1.43 points per game from their last 30 away games (12W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sparta Rotterdam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitesse are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.59 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
Vitesse (Home) vs Sparta Rotterdam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Vitesse
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam Form FAQs
What form are Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 14W 15D 32L in their last 61 games (0.93 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 26W 15D 20L in their last 61 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Sparta Rotterdam's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 0.97 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eredivisie. The most recent in our data was on 2 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Sparta Rotterdam have taken the most recent 5 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won Vitesse 0-4 Sparta Rotterdam on 5 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Vitesse
1
Draws
5
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Vitesse have won 0, Sparta Rotterdam have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 April 2024: Vitesse 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 46% of those situations.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vitesse 50%, Sparta Rotterdam 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Vitesse) and 57% (Sparta Rotterdam).
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 33%; Vitesse have failed to score in 33% of games; Sparta Rotterdam in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Vitesse vs Sparta Rotterdam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vitesse's recent matches and 47% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Vitesse's recent games and 57% of Sparta Rotterdam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vitesse and Sparta Rotterdam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Vitesse's recent matches and 67% of Sparta Rotterdam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Rotterdam run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Vitesse 1-4 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 0.98 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.20 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.70 / defence 1.02 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.87 / defence 0.86, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 29% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 40%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 52%, Sparta Rotterdam 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sparta Rotterdam arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitesse (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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