Fortuna Sittard 1-1 NEC Nijmegen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fortuna Sittard at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fortuna Sittard Stadion plays host to Fortuna Sittard versus NEC Nijmegen in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 April 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fortuna Sittard have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Sittard, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fortuna Sittard have posted 5W 2D 3L at Fortuna Sittard Stadion — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
NEC Nijmegen's overall Eredivisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NEC Nijmegen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, NEC Nijmegen have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. NEC Nijmegen are 0.50 PPG clear of Fortuna Sittard in recent Eredivisie fixtures (2.00 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fortuna Sittard have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, NEC Nijmegen in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fortuna Sittard lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2023, ended 1–4 with NEC Nijmegen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fortuna Sittard — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
NEC Nijmegen — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortuna Sittard 51% versus NEC Nijmegen 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Sittard 64% | NEC Nijmegen 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Sittard 2.02 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.202 / defence 1.112 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.165 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.374. Data: 61 Fortuna Sittard games / 61 NEC Nijmegen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 34%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Sittard 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | NEC Nijmegen 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.80. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.80 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.78) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortuna Sittard at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form NEC Nijmegen (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fortuna Sittard if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 73% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortuna Sittard 60% | NEC Nijmegen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Fortuna Sittard Stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Apr 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 73% | xG Fortuna Sittard 2.02 / NEC Nijmegen 1.78 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Sittard attack 1.202 / def 1.112 | NEC Nijmegen attack 1.165 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: Fortuna Sittard (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Fortuna Sittard xG
Expected Goals
1.78
NEC Nijmegen xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen kick off?
Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen kicked off at 20:00 on Tuesday 2 April 2024 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What was the final score in Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Fortuna Sittard 1 - 1 NEC Nijmegen.
Where is Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen being played?
The match is being played at Fortuna Sittard Stadion.
What competition is Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen part of?
Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Sittard a 43% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fortuna Sittard the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen?
Record (5 meetings): Fortuna Sittard 1W | Draws 2 | NEC Nijmegen 2W.
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen in?
Fortuna Sittard (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. NEC Nijmegen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Sittard's attack at 1.20x the league average against NEC Nijmegen's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 2.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NEC Nijmegen's attack (1.17x) against Fortuna Sittard's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.78.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.1%), 2-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortuna Sittard Win
43%
2.30
23%
4.40
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Fortuna Sittard xG
Total xG
3.80
1.78
NEC Nijmegen xG
2.30
43%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.70
Clean Sheet
17%
5.93
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
7%
13.64
4%
22.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.0 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Fortuna Sittard and 1.78 for NEC Nijmegen, a combined total of 3.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Sittard's recent record stands at 19W 13D 29L from 61 games, a 1.15 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Sittard is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NEC Nijmegen, meanwhile, have gone 19W 24D 18L across 61 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for NEC Nijmegen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Fortuna Sittard against 1.33 for NEC Nijmegen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortuna Sittard have managed 12W 7D 11L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
NEC Nijmegen's away record stands at 8W 12D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Sittard are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; NEC Nijmegen are on 1.56 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Sittard
Blended
NEC Nijmegen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen in coming into this match?
Fortuna Sittard have gone 19W 13D 29L in their last 61 games (1.15 PPG), while NEC Nijmegen have gone 19W 24D 18L in their last 61 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Sittard at home or NEC Nijmegen away?
Fortuna Sittard's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.43 PPG; NEC Nijmegen away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fortuna Sittard go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: NEC Nijmegen won 4-1 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Sittard have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against NEC Nijmegen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fortuna Sittard
3
Draws
4
NEC Nijmegen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen?
From 10 meetings on record, Fortuna Sittard have won 3, NEC Nijmegen have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when NEC Nijmegen 2-3 Fortuna Sittard.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen?
NEC Nijmegen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Sittard are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
NEC Nijmegen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Sittard 50%, NEC Nijmegen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Fortuna Sittard) and 47% (NEC Nijmegen).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Sittard have failed to score in 33% of games; NEC Nijmegen in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Sittard home games / NEC Nijmegen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Sittard play NEC Nijmegen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fortuna Sittard's recent matches and 47% of NEC Nijmegen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Sittard vs NEC Nijmegen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Fortuna Sittard's recent games and 47% of NEC Nijmegen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen tend to score early?
Fortuna Sittard have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, NEC Nijmegen in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortuna Sittard and NEC Nijmegen finished level at 1-1 at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Sittard 2.02 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.78 xG, a combined 3.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Fortuna Sittard fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Sittard attack 1.20 / defence 1.11 against NEC Nijmegen attack 1.17 / defence 1.05, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Sittard 43% | Draw 23% | NEC Nijmegen 34%, with Fortuna Sittard to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Sittard 64%, NEC Nijmegen 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Sittard's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Sittard 1.15 PPG, NEC Nijmegen 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.