Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heracles at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Heracles vs NAC Breda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Heracles welcome NAC Breda to Asito Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 14 February 2026 at 15:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Heracles have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Heracles, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Asito Stadium, Heracles have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Heracles are significantly better at Asito Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Heracles) versus 0.40 (NAC Breda). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Heracles, 1 for NAC Breda and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with NAC Breda winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Heracles in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
NAC Breda in-play tendencies (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Heracles 62% versus NAC Breda 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Heracles 64% | NAC Breda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Heracles 1.59 xG and NAC Breda 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Heracles attack 1.037 / defence 1.275 | NAC Breda attack 0.808 / defence 0.935. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.443. Data: 56 Heracles games / 56 NAC Breda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Heracles 40% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 36%. Fair-value odds: Heracles 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | NAC Breda 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Heracles as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Heracles offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Heracles 60% | NAC Breda 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Heracles vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Asito Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Feb 2026, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Heracles 40% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Heracles 1.59 / NAC Breda 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Heracles attack 1.037 / def 1.275 | NAC Breda attack 0.808 / def 0.935 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Heracles (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Heracles xG
Expected Goals
1.49
NAC Breda xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Heracles vs NAC Breda kick off?
Heracles vs NAC Breda kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 14 February 2026 at Asito Stadium.
What was the final score in Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Heracles 0 - 1 NAC Breda.
Where is Heracles vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Asito Stadium.
What competition is Heracles vs NAC Breda part of?
Heracles vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives Heracles a 40% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Heracles the favourite.
Will both teams score in Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Heracles and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will Heracles vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and NAC Breda?
Record (5 meetings): Heracles 3W | Draws 1 | NAC Breda 1W.
What form are Heracles and NAC Breda in?
Heracles (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. NAC Breda (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Heracles's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against NAC Breda's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, NAC Breda's attack versus Heracles's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heracles Win
40%
2.49
24%
4.18
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Heracles xG
Total xG
3.07
1.49
NAC Breda xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.42
20%
4.89
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
7%
13.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Heracles and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Heracles and 1.49 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Heracles vs NAC Breda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Heracles's recent record stands at 14W 13D 29L from 56 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Heracles is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
NAC Breda, meanwhile, have gone 11W 16D 29L across 56 games — 0.88 PPG, with D-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Heracles on 0.98 PPG, NAC Breda on 0.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Heracles have managed 10W 8D 9L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.98 PPG overall — Heracles are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
NAC Breda's away record stands at 2W 7D 18L across 27 trips, a 0.48 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of NAC Breda's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Heracles come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Heracles are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 1.02 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Heracles have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Heracles
Blended
NAC Breda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Heracles and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
Heracles have gone 14W 13D 29L in their last 56 games (0.98 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 11W 16D 29L in their last 56 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Heracles at home or NAC Breda away?
Heracles's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Heracles at home: 1.41 PPG; NAC Breda away: 0.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Heracles and NAC Breda runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Nov 2022, when Heracles won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Heracles's record when hosting NAC Breda specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Heracles
1
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Heracles and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, Heracles have won 3, NAC Breda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Heracles and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Heracles 0-1 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between Heracles and NAC Breda?
Heracles have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Heracles are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Heracles 74%, NAC Breda 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Heracles and 56% for NAC Breda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Heracles home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Heracles play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Heracles's games and 48% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Heracles vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Heracles's matches and 56% of NAC Breda's.
Do Heracles and NAC Breda tend to score early?
Heracles have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as NAC Breda defy the odds to beat Heracles 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Heracles 0-1 at Asito Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Heracles 1.59 xG and NAC Breda 1.49 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Heracles fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Heracles attack 1.04 / defence 1.27 against NAC Breda attack 0.81 / defence 0.94, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Heracles 40% | Draw 24% | NAC Breda 36%, with Heracles to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Heracles 64%, NAC Breda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Heracles's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
NAC Breda's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Heracles 0.98 PPG, NAC Breda 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. Heracles (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.