FC Volendam 0-4 Heerenveen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Heerenveen at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Heerenveen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Heerenveen make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC Volendam (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 games at Kras Stadion this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game.
Heerenveen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Heerenveen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Heerenveen away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Heerenveen are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
FC Volendam half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Heerenveen half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Volendam 64% versus Heerenveen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 68% | Heerenveen 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.54 xG and Heerenveen 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.732 / defence 1.398 | Heerenveen attack 0.970 / defence 1.376. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.434. FC Volendam's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Heerenveen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.376 — this is suppressing FC Volendam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 FC Volendam games / 56 Heerenveen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 30% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 47%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Heerenveen 2.13. Heerenveen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Heerenveen at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Heerenveen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | Heerenveen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Heerenveen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 30% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 68% | xG FC Volendam 1.54 / Heerenveen 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.732 / def 1.398 | Heerenveen attack 0.970 / def 1.376 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Heerenveen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Heerenveen xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Heerenveen kick off?
FC Volendam vs Heerenveen kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
FC Volendam 0 - 4 Heerenveen.
Where is FC Volendam vs Heerenveen being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Heerenveen part of?
FC Volendam vs Heerenveen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 30% chance of winning, Heerenveen a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Heerenveen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both FC Volendam and Heerenveen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Heerenveen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heerenveen?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 1W | Draws 0 | Heerenveen 2W.
What form are FC Volendam and Heerenveen in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Heerenveen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.73) and Heerenveen's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Heerenveen's attack (0.97x) against FC Volendam's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.95.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Heerenveen Win
30%
3.30
23%
4.35
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.49
1.95
Heerenveen xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
14%
6.99
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
4%
23.07
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 6.9 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Heerenveen expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.95 for Heerenveen, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Heerenveen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 13W 10D 33L from 56 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Heerenveen, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 25L across 56 games — 1.23 PPG, with L-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Heerenveen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.88 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.23 for Heerenveen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 11W 2D 14L from 27 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.88 PPG overall — FC Volendam are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Heerenveen's away record stands at 7W 8D 12L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.21 conceded per game recently; Heerenveen are on 1.41 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Heerenveen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Heerenveen in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 13W 10D 33L in their last 56 games (0.88 PPG), while Heerenveen have gone 19W 12D 25L in their last 56 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Heerenveen away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.30 PPG; Heerenveen away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Heerenveen won 0-4 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Heerenveen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC Volendam
1
Draws
4
Heerenveen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Heerenveen?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 1, Heerenveen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Heerenveen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC Volendam 0-2 Heerenveen.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Heerenveen?
Heerenveen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Heerenveen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 63%, Heerenveen 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Volendam and 59% for Heerenveen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Heerenveen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Heerenveen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Heerenveen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FC Volendam's games and 48% of Heerenveen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Heerenveen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 59% of Heerenveen's.
Do FC Volendam and Heerenveen tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Heerenveen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Heerenveen run riot with a 0-4 hammering of FC Volendam.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Heerenveen beat FC Volendam 0-4 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.54 xG and Heerenveen 1.95 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. FC Volendam fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Heerenveen outscored their 1.95 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.73 / defence 1.40 against Heerenveen attack 0.97 / defence 1.38, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 30% | Draw 23% | Heerenveen 47%, with Heerenveen to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 68%, Heerenveen 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Heerenveen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 0.88 PPG, Heerenveen 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Heerenveen win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Heerenveen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.