Excelsior 1-2 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 65% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Excelsior face Vitesse.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Van Donge & De Roo Stadion plays host to Excelsior versus Vitesse in Eredivisie (matchday 23). Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 11:15 UK time.
Current Form
Excelsior's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.40 conceded. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Excelsior have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Excelsior are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Vitesse have collected 0.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Vitesse have gone 1W 0D 9L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Excelsior, 0 for Vitesse and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 7 Oct 2023, ended Excelsior 0–0 Vitesse — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 55% versus Vitesse 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 64% | Vitesse 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.38 xG and Vitesse 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.998 / defence 1.112 | Vitesse attack 0.694 / defence 1.543. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.451. Vitesse's defence rating of 1.543 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Excelsior's projected output up. Vitesse's attack rating of 0.694 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Excelsior's last 56 games and Vitesse's last 56.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 65% | Draw 19% | Vitesse 16%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.55 | Draw 5.13 | Vitesse 6.31. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (65%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.49. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.49 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (2.38 / 1.12) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.49 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Excelsior's last 10 home games and Vitesse's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Excelsior 70% (last 10 home games) | Vitesse 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Vitesse | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 23 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 11:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 65% | Draw 19% | Vitesse 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% (Under 32%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Excelsior 2.38 / Vitesse 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.998 / def 1.112 | Vitesse attack 0.694 / def 1.543 | league avg home 1.542 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.38
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Vitesse xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Excelsior vs Vitesse FAQs
What time does Excelsior vs Vitesse kick off?
Excelsior vs Vitesse kicked off at 11:15 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Vitesse?
Excelsior 1 - 2 Vitesse.
Where is Excelsior vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Vitesse part of?
Excelsior vs Vitesse is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 65% chance of winning, Vitesse a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Excelsior and Vitesse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Excelsior vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (1.00) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.54), the model arrives at 2.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vitesse's attack (0.69x) against Excelsior's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from Excelsior's last 56 games and Vitesse's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.1%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
65%
1.55
19%
5.13
16%
6.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.38
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.49
1.12
Vitesse xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.13
19%
Draw
6.31
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
9%
10.75
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
1%
67.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.2 | 8.1 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Excelsior vs Vitesse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.38 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.12 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Vitesse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Excelsior come into this having played 56 games, going 13W 14D 29L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, Vitesse sit at 0.95 PPG from 56 outings (13W 14D 29L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Excelsior against 0.95 for Vitesse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Excelsior's home form reads 10W 8D 10L across their last 28 home games, a 1.36 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.95 PPG overall — Excelsior are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Vitesse have taken 0.89 points per game from their last 28 away games (7W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.09 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
Excelsior (Home) vs Vitesse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Excelsior
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Excelsior vs Vitesse Form FAQs
What form are Excelsior and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 14D 29L in their last 56 games (0.95 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 13W 14D 29L in their last 56 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Vitesse away?
Excelsior's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.36 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Excelsior and Vitesse, the earliest from August 2022. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 2L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Vitesse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior
3
Draws
2
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Excelsior vs Vitesse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Vitesse?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Excelsior have won 1, Vitesse have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Vitesse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Excelsior 1-3 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 57%, Vitesse 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Excelsior and 61% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior have failed to score in 29% of games; Vitesse in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Excelsior vs Vitesse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Excelsior and Vitesse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Excelsior's recent matches and 46% of Vitesse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Excelsior and Vitesse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Excelsior's matches and 61% of Vitesse's.
Do Excelsior and Vitesse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Excelsior's recent matches and 82% of Vitesse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vitesse defy the odds to beat Excelsior 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitesse beat Excelsior 1-2 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.38 xG and Vitesse 1.12 xG, a combined 3.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Vitesse outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against Vitesse attack 0.69 / defence 1.54, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 65% | Draw 19% | Vitesse 16%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a Vitesse win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 64%, Vitesse 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 0.95 PPG, Vitesse 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Vitesse win broke the near-deadlock. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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