Cambuur 1-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cambuur at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cambuur vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cambuur host Den Bosch at Kooi Stadion in Eredivisie, Relegation Round. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 16 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cambuur — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eredivisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Den Bosch — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Cambuur have won 2, Den Bosch 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 77% and Den Bosch 49% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cambuur 72% | Den Bosch 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.56 xG and Den Bosch 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Den Bosch attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.326. Data: 0 Cambuur games / 0 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 42% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 30%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Den Bosch 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cambuur are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Den Bosch (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cambuur offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Cambuur 80% | Den Bosch 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eredivisie, Relegation Round | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 42% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG Cambuur 1.56 / Den Bosch 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Den Bosch attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Cambuur (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Den Bosch xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Den Bosch kick off?
Cambuur vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Cambuur 1 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Cambuur vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Den Bosch part of?
Cambuur vs Den Bosch is a Relegation Round fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 42% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cambuur the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cambuur and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): Cambuur 2W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 3W.
What form are Cambuur and Den Bosch in?
Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cambuur Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.64
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.86
1.30
Den Bosch xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.65
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.6 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.30 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cambuur come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 8D 18L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 0.92 PPG from 39 outings (9W 9D 21L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.21 PPG, Den Bosch on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cambuur's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (5W 3D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Cambuur are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.00 scored and 1.74 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Early Season
Den Bosch
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 13W 8D 18L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 9W 9D 21L in their last 39 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Den Bosch away?
Cambuur's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.26 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cambuur and Den Bosch runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cambuur's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Cambuur
2
Draws
3
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Den Bosch?
From 8 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Den Bosch have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cambuur 84%, Den Bosch 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Cambuur and 47% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Cambuur's games and 37% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Cambuur's matches and 47% of Den Bosch's.
Do Cambuur and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cambuur and Den Bosch share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kooi Stadion, Relegation Round, as Cambuur and Den Bosch drew 1-1 in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.56 xG and Den Bosch 1.30 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Den Bosch attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 0/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 42% | Draw 28% | Den Bosch 30%, with Cambuur to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 72%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.21 PPG, Den Bosch 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.