AZ Alkmaar 3-0 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AZ Alkmaar host Groningen at AFAS Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 May 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AZ Alkmaar stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, AZ Alkmaar have posted 5W 2D 3L at AFAS Stadion — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Groningen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Groningen's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AZ Alkmaar at 1.30 PPG versus Groningen's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, AZ Alkmaar have won 3, Groningen 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Groningen in-play tendencies (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AZ Alkmaar 52% versus Groningen 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AZ Alkmaar 63% | Groningen 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AZ Alkmaar 1.80 xG and Groningen 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.863 / defence 0.879 | Groningen attack 0.764 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.329. Groningen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing AZ Alkmaar's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 AZ Alkmaar games / 31 Groningen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 58% | Draw 25% | Groningen 17%. Fair-value odds: AZ Alkmaar 1.72 | Draw 4.00 | Groningen 5.88. The model has a clear lean to AZ Alkmaar (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: AZ Alkmaar 50% | Groningen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: AFAS Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AZ Alkmaar 58% | Draw 25% | Groningen 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG AZ Alkmaar 1.80 / Groningen 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: AZ Alkmaar attack 0.863 / def 0.879 | Groningen attack 0.764 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
AZ Alkmaar xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Groningen xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen kick off?
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at AFAS Stadion.
What was the final score in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar 3 - 0 Groningen.
Where is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Stadion.
What competition is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen part of?
AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives AZ Alkmaar a 58% chance of winning, Groningen a 17% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AZ Alkmaar and Groningen will score (BTTS).
Will AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
Record (5 meetings): AZ Alkmaar 3W | Draws 1 | Groningen 1W.
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Groningen in?
AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Groningen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AZ Alkmaar's attack rating (0.86) and Groningen's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus AZ Alkmaar's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
58%
1.73
25%
3.98
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
AZ Alkmaar xG
Total xG
2.69
0.89
Groningen xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
17%
6.03
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
3%
34.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.9 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are AZ Alkmaar and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for AZ Alkmaar and 0.89 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 65 outings, AZ Alkmaar have picked up 1.77 PPG on a 33W 16D 16L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Groningen's form line: 30W 16D 19L from 65 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: AZ Alkmaar on 1.77 PPG, Groningen on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, AZ Alkmaar have posted 1.88 PPG from 32 outings (18W 6D 8L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 11W 7D 14L from 32 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AZ Alkmaar are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.58 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AZ Alkmaar
Current Season
Groningen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AZ Alkmaar and Groningen in coming into this match?
AZ Alkmaar have gone 33W 16D 16L in their last 65 games (1.77 PPG), while Groningen have gone 30W 16D 19L in their last 65 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AZ Alkmaar at home or Groningen away?
AZ Alkmaar's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AZ Alkmaar at home: 1.88 PPG; Groningen away: 1.25 PPG.
Have AZ Alkmaar or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
AZ Alkmaar have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Groningen in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AZ Alkmaar's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
AZ Alkmaar
1
Draws
2
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
From 8 meetings on record, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, Groningen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AZ Alkmaar and Groningen last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Groningen 3-0 AZ Alkmaar.
Who has won more matches between AZ Alkmaar and Groningen?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AZ Alkmaar 53%, Groningen 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (AZ Alkmaar) and 56% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AZ Alkmaar keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AZ Alkmaar home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AZ Alkmaar play Groningen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of AZ Alkmaar's games and 59% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of AZ Alkmaar's matches and 56% of Groningen's.
Do AZ Alkmaar and Groningen tend to score early?
AZ Alkmaar have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Groningen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AZ Alkmaar run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Groningen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Groningen 3-0 at AFAS Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AZ Alkmaar 1.80 xG and Groningen 0.89 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. AZ Alkmaar beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Groningen landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AZ Alkmaar attack 0.86 / defence 0.88 against Groningen attack 0.76 / defence 1.29, drawn from 65/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AZ Alkmaar 58% | Draw 25% | Groningen 17%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AZ Alkmaar 63%, Groningen 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Groningen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AZ Alkmaar 1.77 PPG, Groningen 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.