Willem II 2-1 ADO Den Haag – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Willem II at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Willem II vs ADO Den Haag encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as Willem II welcome ADO Den Haag to Koning Willem II Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II at Koning Willem II Stadion this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ADO Den Haag — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for ADO Den Haag, so this record blends games from this season and last.
ADO Den Haag away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.20 PPG (Willem II) versus 2.20 (ADO Den Haag). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Willem II, 0 for ADO Den Haag and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
ADO Den Haag in-play and half-time data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Willem II 62% and ADO Den Haag 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 60% | ADO Den Haag 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.62 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 1.117 / defence 0.866 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.186 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. Data: 63 Willem II games / 63 ADO Den Haag games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Willem II 43% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 30%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | ADO Den Haag 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Willem II 80% | ADO Den Haag 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs ADO Den Haag | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 43% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Willem II 1.62 / ADO Den Haag 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 1.117 / def 0.866 | ADO Den Haag attack 1.186 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Willem II (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
1.33
ADO Den Haag xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Willem II vs ADO Den Haag kick off?
Willem II vs ADO Den Haag kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Willem II 2 - 1 ADO Den Haag.
Where is Willem II vs ADO Den Haag being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs ADO Den Haag part of?
Willem II vs ADO Den Haag is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 43% chance of winning, ADO Den Haag a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Willem II and ADO Den Haag will score (BTTS).
Will Willem II vs ADO Den Haag have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and ADO Den Haag?
Record (3 meetings): Willem II 2W | Draws 1 | ADO Den Haag 0W.
What form are Willem II and ADO Den Haag in?
Willem II (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-W. ADO Den Haag (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Willem II's attack rating (1.12) and ADO Den Haag's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, ADO Den Haag's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.70
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.96
1.33
ADO Den Haag xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
6%
16.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Willem II and ADO Den Haag expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Willem II and 1.33 for ADO Den Haag, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs ADO Den Haag?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.94 PPG on a 35W 17D 11L record — W-D-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
ADO Den Haag's form line: 27W 19D 17L from 63 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for ADO Den Haag is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.94 PPG, ADO Den Haag on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Willem II have posted 2.26 PPG from 31 outings (22W 4D 5L).
On the road, ADO Den Haag have gone 14W 10D 7L from 31 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; ADO Den Haag are on 1.65 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Willem II have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; ADO Den Haag in 65%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
ADO Den Haag
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Willem II and ADO Den Haag in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 35W 17D 11L in their last 63 games (1.94 PPG), while ADO Den Haag have gone 27W 19D 17L in their last 63 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or ADO Den Haag away?
Willem II's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 2.26 PPG; ADO Den Haag away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Willem II or ADO Den Haag been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, ADO Den Haag in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: ADO Den Haag have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when ADO Den Haag won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Willem II's record when hosting ADO Den Haag specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Willem II
1
Draws
2
ADO Den Haag
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and ADO Den Haag?
From 6 meetings on record, Willem II have won 3, ADO Den Haag have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and ADO Den Haag last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2026, when Willem II 0-1 ADO Den Haag.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and ADO Den Haag?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
ADO Den Haag are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 64%, ADO Den Haag 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Willem II and 55% for ADO Den Haag. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Willem II keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; ADO Den Haag in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / ADO Den Haag away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Willem II play ADO Den Haag?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Willem II's games and 64% of ADO Den Haag's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Willem II vs ADO Den Haag usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Willem II's matches and 55% of ADO Den Haag's.
Do Willem II and ADO Den Haag tend to score early?
Willem II have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, ADO Den Haag in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Willem II edge out ADO Den Haag 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat ADO Den Haag 2-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.62 xG and ADO Den Haag 1.33 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 1.12 / defence 0.87 against ADO Den Haag attack 1.19 / defence 0.87, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 43% | Draw 27% | ADO Den Haag 30%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 60%, ADO Den Haag 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
ADO Den Haag's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.94 PPG, ADO Den Haag 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. ADO Den Haag (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.