Helmond Sport 3-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 39%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 26 as Helmond Sport welcome De Graafschap to GS Staalwerken Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 4W 3D 3L at GS Staalwerken Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at GS Staalwerken Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Helmond Sport's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour De Graafschap, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Helmond Sport.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 1–2 with De Graafschap winning.
It is worth noting that De Graafschap have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 57% versus De Graafschap 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 56% | De Graafschap 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.987 / defence 1.044 | De Graafschap attack 1.060 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. Data: 63 Helmond Sport games / 63 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 39% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 34%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | De Graafschap 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 70% | De Graafschap 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 39% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Helmond Sport 1.55 / De Graafschap 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.987 / def 1.044 | De Graafschap attack 1.060 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.44
De Graafschap xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kick off?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Helmond Sport 3 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap part of?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 39% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Helmond Sport and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
Record (5 meetings): Helmond Sport 1W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 4W.
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.99x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.69
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.99
1.44
De Graafschap xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.44 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 19W 16D 28L from 63 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 24L across 63 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.16 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 13W 8D 11L from 32 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 12W 6D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.60 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 19W 16D 28L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 28W 11D 24L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or De Graafschap away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.47 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 3, De Graafschap have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Helmond Sport 0-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 62%, De Graafschap 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Helmond Sport and 69% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Helmond Sport's games and 59% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Helmond Sport's matches and 69% of De Graafschap's.
Do Helmond Sport and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat De Graafschap 3-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Helmond Sport beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against De Graafschap attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 39% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 34%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 56%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.16 PPG, De Graafschap 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.