Helmond Sport 3-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 39%, yet in-form De Graafschap provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Helmond Sport welcome De Graafschap to GS Staalwerken Stadion in Eerste Divisie (matchday 26). Kick-off is Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Helmond Sport — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Helmond Sport have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Helmond Sport are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, De Graafschap stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Helmond Sport's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
De Graafschap have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for Helmond Sport.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Sep 2023, ended Helmond Sport 1–2 De Graafschap — a De Graafschap win.
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
Helmond Sport in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (last 63 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 57% versus De Graafschap 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 56% | De Graafschap 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.987 / defence 1.044 | De Graafschap attack 1.060 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.300. Data: built from Helmond Sport's last 63 games and De Graafschap's last 63.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 39% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 34%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.57 | Draw 3.69 | De Graafschap 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.55 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Helmond Sport's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Helmond Sport 70% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 26 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 39% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Helmond Sport 1.55 / De Graafschap 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.987 / def 1.044 | De Graafschap attack 1.060 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.300 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.44
De Graafschap xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kick off?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 16 February 2024 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Helmond Sport 3 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap part of?
Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 26) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 39% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Helmond Sport and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.99x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Helmond Sport's last 63 games and De Graafschap's last 63 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
39%
2.57
27%
3.69
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.99
1.44
De Graafschap xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.63
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
9%
10.85
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.2 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.2 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.44 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport's recent record stands at 19W 16D 28L from 63 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 28W 11D 24L across 63 games — 1.51 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.16 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.51. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Helmond Sport have managed 13W 8D 11L from their last 32 home games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 12W 6D 14L across their last 32 away games, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.60 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 63 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
Helmond Sport (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helmond Sport
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 19W 16D 28L in their last 63 games (1.16 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 28W 11D 24L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or De Graafschap away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.47 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from April 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 9 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 22 Apr 2022, when De Graafschap won Helmond Sport 0-4 De Graafschap.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
2
Draws
6
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Helmond Sport have won 2, De Graafschap have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 August 2026: Helmond Sport 1-1 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 62%, De Graafschap 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Helmond Sport and 69% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helmond Sport vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helmond Sport and De Graafschap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Helmond Sport's games and 59% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Helmond Sport and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Helmond Sport's matches and 69% of De Graafschap's.
Do Helmond Sport and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 78% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport beat De Graafschap 3-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.44 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Helmond Sport beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against De Graafschap attack 1.06 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 39% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 34%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 56%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.16 PPG, De Graafschap 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helmond Sport win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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