Roda 1-4 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Roda vs Waalwijk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Waalwijk travel to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to take on Roda. The game is scheduled for Friday 19 September 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Roda — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Roda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Roda at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waalwijk stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Roda 1.20 PPG, Waalwijk 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Roda in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 52% versus Waalwijk 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 55% | Waalwijk 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.59 xG and Waalwijk 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.864 / defence 0.973 | Waalwijk attack 0.784 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.701 / away 1.279. Data: 44 Roda games / 6 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 23%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Waalwijk 4.35. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Roda at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Roda 50% | Waalwijk 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 52% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Roda 1.59 / Waalwijk 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.864 / def 0.973 | Waalwijk attack 0.784 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.701 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Roda (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Waalwijk xG
50%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Waalwijk kick off?
Roda vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 September 2025 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Waalwijk?
Roda 1 - 4 Waalwijk.
Where is Roda vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Waalwijk part of?
Roda vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 52% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Roda and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Roda and Waalwijk in?
Roda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Roda's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Waalwijk's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus Roda's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.98
23%
4.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Roda xG
Total xG
2.57
0.97
Waalwijk xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
4.31
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
20%
5.13
5%
21.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 11.9 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Roda and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Roda and 0.97 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Roda have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 16W 10D 14L record — W-L-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Roda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 8W 9D 23L from 40 games, 0.82 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-D. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Venue Form
On home soil, Roda have posted 1.80 PPG from 20 outings (10W 6D 4L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 2W 4D 14L from 20 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Roda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Roda are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.27 scored and 2.02 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 16W 10D 14L in their last 40 games (1.45 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 8W 9D 23L in their last 40 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Waalwijk away?
Roda's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.80 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Roda or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Roda have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Sep 2025, when Waalwijk won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Roda's record when hosting Waalwijk specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Roda
2
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Waalwijk?
From 4 meetings on record, Roda have won 1, Waalwijk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Waalwijk 1-1 Roda.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 40%, Waalwijk 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Roda) and 60% (Waalwijk).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Waalwijk in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Waalwijk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Roda's recent matches and 65% of Waalwijk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Roda's recent games and 60% of Waalwijk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waalwijk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Roda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waalwijk beat Roda 1-4 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.59 xG and Waalwijk 0.97 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against Waalwijk attack 0.78 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 52% | Draw 25% | Waalwijk 23%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Waalwijk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 55%, Waalwijk 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Waalwijk's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Roda (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.