Roda 2-2 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parkstad Limburg Stadion plays host to Roda versus Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Roda have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Roda have posted 1W 2D 7L at Parkstad Limburg Stadion — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Parkstad Limburg Stadion this season.
Emmen's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Roda 4W, Emmen 2W, 1D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 60% versus Emmen 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 58% | Emmen 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 1.56 xG and Emmen 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.732 / defence 1.011 | Emmen attack 0.819 / defence 1.331. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.483. Roda's attack strength of 0.732 is below the league average — the 1.56 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.331 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Roda games / 74 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 45% | Draw 25% | Emmen 30%. Fair-value odds: Roda 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Emmen 3.33. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Roda 50% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 45% | Draw 25% | Emmen 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Roda 1.56 / Emmen 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.732 / def 1.011 | Emmen attack 0.819 / def 1.331 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Roda (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Roda xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Emmen xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs Emmen kick off?
Roda vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What was the final score in Roda vs Emmen?
Roda 2 - 2 Emmen.
Where is Roda vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs Emmen part of?
Roda vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 45% chance of winning, Emmen a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Roda and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Emmen?
Record (7 meetings): Roda 4W | Draws 1 | Emmen 2W.
What form are Roda and Emmen in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Emmen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Roda's attack at 0.73x the league average against Emmen's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.82x) against Roda's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
45%
2.22
25%
4.01
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Roda xG
Total xG
2.79
1.23
Emmen xG
2.22
45%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
21%
4.75
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
6%
15.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Roda and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Roda and 1.23 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Roda come into this having played 74 games, going 27W 22D 25L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.31 PPG from 74 outings (28W 13D 33L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Roda against 1.31 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Roda's home form reads 13W 11D 13L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.24 points per game from 37 outings (14W 4D 19L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Roda are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.50 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and Emmen in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 27W 22D 25L in their last 74 games (1.39 PPG), while Emmen have gone 28W 13D 33L in their last 74 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or Emmen away?
Roda's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.35 PPG; Emmen away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Roda
2
Draws
3
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and Emmen?
From 9 meetings on record, Roda have won 4, Emmen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Roda and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and Emmen?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 46%, Emmen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Roda) and 60% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Roda keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Roda have failed to score in 27% of games; Emmen in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Roda's recent matches and 46% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Roda's recent games and 60% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and Emmen tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Emmen in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda and Emmen share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda and Emmen finished level at 2-2 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Roda 1.56 xG and Emmen 1.23 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Roda attack 0.73 / defence 1.01 against Emmen attack 0.82 / defence 1.33, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Roda 45% | Draw 25% | Emmen 30%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Roda 58%, Emmen 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Roda's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Roda 1.39 PPG, Emmen 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.