Jong Utrecht 1-3 Roda – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Roda (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong Utrecht face Roda.

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Full Analysis

Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.

Form

Jong Utrecht (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.

Roda have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Roda's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Roda are 1.20 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

Across the last 6 meetings, Roda have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Jong Utrecht's 1, with 1 draws in the mix.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Roda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading

Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

Roda half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 50% versus Roda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 48% | Roda 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.31 xG and Roda 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.819 / defence 1.356 | Roda attack 0.797 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.389. Data: 52 Jong Utrecht games / 52 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 33% | Draw 26% | Roda 41%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 40% | Roda 60%.

The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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