Jong AZ 4-0 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Willem II (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong AZ face Willem II.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Willem II travel to AFAS Trainingscomplex to take on Jong AZ. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ at AFAS Trainingscomplex this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Willem II stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Willem II, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Jong AZ.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2024, ended 1–4 with Willem II winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Willem II have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Willem II in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 65% and Willem II 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 67% | Willem II 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.72 xG and Willem II 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.931 / defence 1.205 | Willem II attack 1.088 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.825 / away 1.379. Data: 49 Jong AZ games / 11 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 37% | Draw 22% | Willem II 41%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 2.70 | Draw 4.55 | Willem II 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.53. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.53 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Willem II at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.53 combined xG gives a 68% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 69% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 50% | Willem II 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 20 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 37% | Draw 22% | Willem II 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 69% | xG Jong AZ 1.72 / Willem II 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.931 / def 1.205 | Willem II attack 1.088 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.825 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Willem II (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Willem II xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Willem II kick off?
Jong AZ vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 20 October 2025 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Jong AZ 4 - 0 Willem II.
Where is Jong AZ vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Willem II part of?
Jong AZ vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 37% chance of winning, Willem II a 41% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Jong AZ and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Willem II?
Record (4 meetings): Jong AZ 0W | Draws 1 | Willem II 3W.
What form are Jong AZ and Willem II in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Willem II (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (0.93) and Willem II's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
37%
2.70
22%
4.51
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.53
1.81
Willem II xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.19
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
18%
5.57
Win to Nil
6%
16.44
7%
13.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 9.1 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.81 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong AZ's recent record stands at 16W 12D 21L from 49 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 25L across 49 games — 1.02 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.22 PPG, Willem II on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong AZ have managed 7W 6D 11L from 24 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Willem II's away record stands at 6W 7D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong AZ are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.14 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Willem II in 61%.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Willem II in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 16W 12D 21L in their last 49 games (1.22 PPG), while Willem II have gone 13W 11D 25L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Willem II away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.12 PPG; Willem II away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong AZ and Willem II runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2025, when Jong AZ won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Jong AZ
1
Draws
4
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 1, Willem II have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Willem II 3-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong AZ at 71%, Willem II at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Jong AZ and 46% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Jong AZ's games and 62% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Jong AZ's matches and 46% of Willem II's.
Do Jong AZ and Willem II tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Willem II in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Willem II 4-0 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.72 xG and Willem II 1.81 xG, a combined 3.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Jong AZ beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Willem II landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.93 / defence 1.21 against Willem II attack 1.09 / defence 1.01, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 37% | Draw 22% | Willem II 41%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 67%, Willem II 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Willem II's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.22 PPG, Willem II 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.