Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Ajax and De Graafschap meet at Sportpark De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Monday 19 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Ajax's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax's home record at Sportpark De Toekomst: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
De Graafschap have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for Jong Ajax against 1.10 for De Graafschap. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jong Ajax lead 4W to 4W over the last 10 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 0–4 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Jong Ajax goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
De Graafschap goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 62% and De Graafschap 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 62% | De Graafschap 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.53 xG and De Graafschap 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.805 / defence 1.404 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Data: 48 Jong Ajax games / 48 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 29% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 49%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.45 | Draw 4.55 | De Graafschap 2.04. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.54. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.54 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 2.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.54 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 50% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 19 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 29% | Draw 22% | De Graafschap 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 68% | xG Jong Ajax 1.53 / De Graafschap 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.805 / def 1.404 | De Graafschap attack 0.982 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
2.02
De Graafschap xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Monday 19 October 2026 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
Where is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 29% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 49% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Jong Ajax and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and De Graafschap?
Record (10 meetings): Jong Ajax 4W | Draws 2 | De Graafschap 4W.
What form are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Jong Ajax's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.98x) against Jong Ajax's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 2.02.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
29%
3.40
22%
4.65
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
3.54
2.02
De Graafschap xG
3.40
29%
Home win
4.65
22%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.12
Clean Sheet
13%
7.50
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
4%
25.48
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 2.02 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 11W 10D 27L from 48 games, a 0.90 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 20W 12D 16L across 48 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Ajax heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 6W 6D 12L from 24 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 8D 7L across 24 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.81 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; De Graafschap in 75%.
Last 48 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 11W 10D 27L in their last 48 games (0.90 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 20W 12D 16L in their last 48 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.00 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.46 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong Ajax won 5-1 on 22 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 4, De Graafschap have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when De Graafschap 4-0 Jong Ajax.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Jong Ajax, 75% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Jong Ajax and 71% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jong Ajax's games and 75% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jong Ajax's matches and 71% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong Ajax and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.