Helmond Sport 1-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Helmond Sport face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
FC OSS travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion to take on Helmond Sport in Eerste Divisie (matchday 6). The game is scheduled for Friday 15 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Helmond Sport have gone 4W 2D 4L — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Helmond Sport have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC OSS — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helmond Sport 1.40 PPG, FC OSS 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Helmond Sport have won 0, FC OSS 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 31 Mar 2023, ended Helmond Sport 2–2 FC OSS — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Helmond Sport trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
FC OSS trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 50% versus FC OSS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 50% | FC OSS 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.55 xG and FC OSS 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.890 / defence 0.880 | FC OSS attack 0.737 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.298. FC OSS's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Helmond Sport's last 42 games and FC OSS's last 42.
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 54% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 20%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 1.85 | Draw 3.91 | FC OSS 4.90. Helmond Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Helmond Sport as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.39 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Helmond Sport 50% (last 10 home games) | FC OSS 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 6 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 54% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Helmond Sport 1.55 / FC OSS 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.890 / def 0.880 | FC OSS attack 0.737 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
0.84
FC OSS xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Helmond Sport vs FC OSS FAQs
What time does Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kick off?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 15 September 2023 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Helmond Sport 1 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs FC OSS part of?
Helmond Sport vs FC OSS is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 6) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 54% chance of winning, FC OSS a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Helmond Sport and FC OSS will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Helmond Sport vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.89) and FC OSS's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC OSS's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Helmond Sport's last 42 games and FC OSS's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.91
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
2.39
0.84
FC OSS xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
23%
4.30
4%
23.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.2 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Helmond Sport vs FC OSS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 0.84 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs FC OSS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Helmond Sport come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 10D 19L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W.
On the other side, FC OSS sit at 0.95 PPG from 42 outings (11W 7D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 1.17 PPG, FC OSS on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Helmond Sport's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across their last 21 home games, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, FC OSS have taken 0.76 points per game from their last 21 away games (4W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helmond Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.17 scored and 1.95 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
Helmond Sport (Home) vs FC OSS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Helmond Sport
Early Season
FC OSS
Early Season
❓ Helmond Sport vs FC OSS Form FAQs
What form are Helmond Sport and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 13W 10D 19L in their last 42 games (1.17 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 11W 7D 24L in their last 42 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or FC OSS away?
Helmond Sport's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.48 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 31 Oct 2025, when Helmond Sport won FC OSS 0-3 Helmond Sport.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting FC OSS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Helmond Sport
4
Draws
4
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Helmond Sport vs FC OSS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Helmond Sport have won 2, FC OSS have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and FC OSS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: FC OSS 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and FC OSS?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 57%, FC OSS 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Helmond Sport) and 57% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Helmond Sport vs FC OSS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Helmond Sport and FC OSS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 48% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Helmond Sport and FC OSS matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Helmond Sport's matches and 57% of FC OSS's.
Do Helmond Sport and FC OSS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 81% of FC OSS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport and FC OSS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helmond Sport and FC OSS finished level at 1-1 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.55 xG and FC OSS 0.84 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.89 / defence 0.88 against FC OSS attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 54% | Draw 26% | FC OSS 20%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 50%, FC OSS 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 1.17 PPG, FC OSS 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Eerste Divisie fixtures — matchday 6
All Eerste Divisie fixtures →
More Dutch football predictions →