Den Bosch 3-2 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Den Bosch face MVV.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host MVV at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie (matchday 6). Kick-off is Friday 15 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, MVV stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, MVV have posted 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Den Bosch at 0.80 PPG versus MVV's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Den Bosch's games and 60% of MVV's (from Den Bosch's last 10 home games and MVV's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Den Bosch have won 1, MVV 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2023, ended Den Bosch 3–3 MVV — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
MVV in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 54% and MVV 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Den Bosch 67% | MVV 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.42 xG and MVV 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.823 / defence 1.103 | MVV attack 1.121 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.298. Data: built from Den Bosch's last 43 games and MVV's last 42.
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 24% | MVV 42%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.95 | Draw 4.15 | MVV 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.42 / 1.60) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, MVV are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Den Bosch's last 10 home games and MVV's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Den Bosch 60% (last 10 home games) | MVV 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 6 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 34% | Draw 24% | MVV 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Den Bosch 1.42 / MVV 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.823 / def 1.103 | MVV attack 1.121 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: MVV (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.60
MVV xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Den Bosch vs MVV FAQs
What time does Den Bosch vs MVV kick off?
Den Bosch vs MVV kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 15 September 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Den Bosch 3 - 2 MVV.
Where is Den Bosch vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs MVV part of?
Den Bosch vs MVV is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 6) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 34% chance of winning, MVV a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Den Bosch and MVV will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Den Bosch vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.82x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Den Bosch's last 43 games and MVV's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
34%
2.95
24%
4.15
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.02
1.60
MVV xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
10%
9.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.1 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Den Bosch vs MVV Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.60 for MVV, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 11W 5D 27L from 43 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 20W 6D 17L across 43 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-W-D-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours MVV by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Den Bosch heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 8W 3D 11L from their last 22 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 6W 3D 13L across their last 22 away games, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.16 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.70 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV in 70%.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
MVV
Early Season
Den Bosch (Home) vs MVV (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Den Bosch
Early Season
MVV
Early Season
❓ Den Bosch vs MVV Form FAQs
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 11W 5D 27L in their last 43 games (0.88 PPG), while MVV have gone 20W 6D 17L in their last 43 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or MVV away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.23 PPG; MVV away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 23 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won MVV 5-0 Den Bosch.
Den Bosch's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
3
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Den Bosch vs MVV H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Den Bosch have won 3, MVV have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and MVV last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 October 2026: Den Bosch 2-2 MVV.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and MVV?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 64%, MVV 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Den Bosch and 73% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Den Bosch vs MVV Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Den Bosch and MVV matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Den Bosch's games and 64% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Den Bosch and MVV matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Den Bosch's matches and 73% of MVV's.
Do Den Bosch and MVV matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 77% of MVV's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Den Bosch defy the odds to beat MVV 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat MVV 3-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 6, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.42 xG and MVV 1.60 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.82 / defence 1.10 against MVV attack 1.12 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 34% | Draw 24% | MVV 42%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 67%, MVV 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, MVV arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.88. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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