FC Volendam 2-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Volendam and Jong AZ meet at Kras Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Friday 6 December 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Volendam have posted 6W 0D 4L at Kras Stadion — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong AZ's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. FC Volendam's 2.30 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Jong AZ's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC Volendam, 0 for Jong AZ and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with FC Volendam winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Volendam — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Jong AZ — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 67% and Jong AZ 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 71% | Jong AZ 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.22 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.289 / defence 0.910 | Jong AZ attack 0.815 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.410. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 2.22 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 17 FC Volendam games / 55 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 63% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 16%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 6.25. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 50% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 6 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 63% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Volendam 2.22 / Jong AZ 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.289 / def 0.910 | Jong AZ attack 0.815 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.22
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Jong AZ xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs Jong AZ kick off?
FC Volendam vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 6 December 2024 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
FC Volendam 2 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is FC Volendam vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs Jong AZ part of?
FC Volendam vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 63% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 16% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Volendam and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong AZ?
Record (2 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and Jong AZ in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Volendam's attack at 1.29x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong AZ's attack (0.81x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 17/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
63%
1.58
21%
4.84
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
8.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.22
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.27
1.05
Jong AZ xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
11%
9.23
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
2%
57.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.22 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.05 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs Jong AZ?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 14W 10D 27L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong AZ's form line: 19W 11D 21L from 51 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.33 for Jong AZ. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 1.16 PPG from 25 outings (9W 2D 14L).
On the road, Jong AZ have gone 7W 7D 11L from 25 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Volendam are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.69 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 69%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 14W 10D 27L in their last 51 games (1.02 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 19W 11D 21L in their last 51 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or Jong AZ away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.16 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 4-1 on 18 Sep 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
FC Volendam
0
Draws
1
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and Jong AZ?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 4, Jong AZ have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Jong AZ 4-1 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and Jong AZ?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 48%, Jong AZ 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for FC Volendam and 68% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of FC Volendam's games and 72% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of FC Volendam's matches and 68% of Jong AZ's.
Do FC Volendam and Jong AZ tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong AZ.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat Jong AZ 2-0 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.22 xG and Jong AZ 1.05 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong AZ landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.29 / defence 0.91 against Jong AZ attack 0.81 / defence 1.11, drawn from 17/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 63% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 16%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 71%, Jong AZ 72%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.02 PPG, Jong AZ 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.