Emmen 0-3 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Emmen (37%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Emmen face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Den Bosch travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 December 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Oude Meerdijk this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Emmen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Emmen: 4 wins from 5 previous clashes against 1 for Den Bosch, with 0 draws across those contests.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 0–1 with Den Bosch winning.
The historical record gives Emmen a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Den Bosch trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 54% versus Den Bosch 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 58% | Den Bosch 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.31 xG and Den Bosch 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.049 / defence 0.963 | Den Bosch attack 0.913 / defence 0.828. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.372. Data: 57 Emmen games / 57 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 37% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 32%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.70 | Draw 3.23 | Den Bosch 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 60% | Den Bosch 40%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 20 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 37% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Emmen 1.31 / Den Bosch 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.049 / def 0.963 | Den Bosch attack 0.913 / def 0.828 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Emmen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Den Bosch xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Den Bosch kick off?
Emmen vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 December 2024 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Emmen 0 - 3 Den Bosch.
Where is Emmen vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Den Bosch part of?
Emmen vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 37% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 32% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Emmen and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Den Bosch?
Record (5 meetings): Emmen 4W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 1W.
What form are Emmen and Den Bosch in?
Emmen (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.05x the league average against Den Bosch's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
37%
2.70
31%
3.23
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.52
1.21
Den Bosch xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
11%
9.02
9%
11.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.8 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Emmen and 1.21 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Emmen come into this having played 57 games, going 26W 11D 20L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Den Bosch sit at 1.11 PPG from 57 outings (16W 15D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Emmen's home form reads 12W 6D 10L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Den Bosch have taken 1.14 points per game from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Emmen are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.21 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 26W 11D 20L in their last 57 games (1.56 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 16W 15D 26L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Den Bosch away?
Emmen's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.50 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Emmen and Den Bosch runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Den Bosch won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Den Bosch?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Den Bosch have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Den Bosch?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 50%, Den Bosch 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Emmen) and 50% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Den Bosch in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Emmen's recent matches and 39% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Emmen's recent games and 50% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Den Bosch run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch beat Emmen 0-3 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.31 xG and Den Bosch 1.21 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Emmen fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Den Bosch outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 1.05 / defence 0.96 against Den Bosch attack 0.91 / defence 0.83, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 37% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 32%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Den Bosch win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 58%, Den Bosch 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Den Bosch winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.