Den Bosch vs MVV – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host MVV at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 23 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at De Vliert this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Den Bosch at 1.30 PPG versus MVV's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Den Bosch have won 4, MVV 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.7 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with MVV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
MVV in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Den Bosch 76% and MVV 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 67% | MVV 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.35 xG and MVV 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.982 / defence 1.131 | MVV attack 0.855 / defence 1.289. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.289 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Den Bosch games / 49 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 58% | Draw 19% | MVV 22%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.72 | Draw 5.26 | MVV 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.35 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 100% | MVV 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 23 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 58% | Draw 19% | MVV 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 68% | xG Den Bosch 2.35 / MVV 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.982 / def 1.131 | MVV attack 0.855 / def 1.289 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.41
MVV xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs MVV kick off?
Den Bosch vs MVV is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 23 October 2026 at De Vliert.
Where is Den Bosch vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs MVV part of?
Den Bosch vs MVV is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 58% chance of winning, MVV a 22% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Den Bosch and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
Record (10 meetings): Den Bosch 4W | Draws 2 | MVV 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. MVV (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.98x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.7%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
58%
1.71
19%
5.17
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.7%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.76
1.41
MVV xG
1.71
58%
Home win
5.17
19%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.17
Clean Sheet
24%
4.11
10%
10.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.04
2%
47.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.41 for MVV, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 16W 11D 22L from 49 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 23L across 49 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.20 PPG, MVV on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 9W 8D 7L from 24 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 5W 6D 13L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.12 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 16W 11D 22L in their last 49 games (1.20 PPG), while MVV have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or MVV away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.46 PPG; MVV away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 4, MVV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-2 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Den Bosch at 83%, MVV at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Den Bosch and 62% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play MVV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Den Bosch's games and 50% of MVV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Den Bosch's matches and 62% of MVV's.
Do Den Bosch and MVV tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, MVV in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.