Cambuur 1-0 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 43%, yet in-form Cambuur provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Jong PSV U21 travel to Kooi Stadion to take on Cambuur. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 November 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cambuur stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cambuur, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cambuur's home record at Kooi Stadion: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Kooi Stadion this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Cambuur are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Cambuur, 2 for Jong PSV U21 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2024, ended 1–3 with Jong PSV U21 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cambuur 65% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cambuur 63% | Jong PSV U21 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cambuur 1.15 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cambuur attack 0.769 / defence 0.898 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.084 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.509. Cambuur's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.15 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 51 Cambuur games / 51 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cambuur 28% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 43%. Fair-value odds: Cambuur 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Jong PSV U21 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cambuur (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cambuur 40% | Jong PSV U21 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Kooi Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cambuur 28% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Cambuur 1.15 / Jong PSV U21 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Cambuur attack 0.769 / def 0.898 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.084 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Cambuur xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Jong PSV U21 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Kooi Stadion.
What was the final score in Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Cambuur 1 - 0 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at Kooi Stadion.
What competition is Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Cambuur a 28% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong PSV U21?
Record (2 meetings): Cambuur 0W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 2W.
What form are Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 in?
Cambuur (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cambuur's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Jong PSV U21's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Cambuur's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
28%
3.51
28%
3.54
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Cambuur xG
Total xG
2.62
1.47
Jong PSV U21 xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
7%
15.25
14%
7.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.1 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Cambuur and 1.47 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Cambuur have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 19W 9D 23L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cambuur is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21's form line: 15W 9D 27L from 51 games, 1.06 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cambuur on 1.29 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cambuur have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 9W 3D 13L from 25 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cambuur are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.65 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cambuur
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Cambuur have gone 19W 9D 23L in their last 51 games (1.29 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 15W 9D 27L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cambuur at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Jong PSV U21's away record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cambuur at home: 1.12 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2025, when Cambuur won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cambuur's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cambuur
0
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cambuur and Jong PSV U21?
From 6 meetings on record, Cambuur have won 3, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Jong PSV U21 3-2 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cambuur at 72%, Jong PSV U21 at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Cambuur and 76% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cambuur home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cambuur play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Cambuur's games and 60% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cambuur vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Cambuur's matches and 76% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Cambuur and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Cambuur have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat Jong PSV U21 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat Jong PSV U21 1-0 at Kooi Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cambuur 1.15 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.47 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cambuur attack 0.77 / defence 0.90 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.08 / defence 1.01, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cambuur 28% | Draw 28% | Jong PSV U21 43%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Cambuur win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cambuur 63%, Jong PSV U21 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cambuur's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cambuur 1.29 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.