Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vicenza Virtus and Palermo meet at Stadio Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 February 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games (1.33 PPG). Last five: W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 2.33 conceded. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Vicenza Virtus have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Palermo arrive in superior form — a 0.67 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Vicenza Virtus — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Palermo — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vicenza Virtus 67% and Palermo 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vicenza Virtus 100% | Palermo 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vicenza Virtus 1.53 xG and Palermo 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / defence 1.245 | Palermo attack 1.149 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 3 Vicenza Virtus games / 41 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 36% | Draw 23% | Palermo 41%. Fair-value odds: Vicenza Virtus 2.78 | Draw 4.35 | Palermo 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palermo at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vicenza Virtus 67% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Feb 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vicenza Virtus 36% | Draw 23% | Palermo 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Vicenza Virtus 1.53 / Palermo 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Vicenza Virtus attack 1.056 / def 1.245 | Palermo attack 1.149 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Palermo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Vicenza Virtus xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Palermo xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo kick off?
Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 February 2027 at Stadio Romeo Menti.
Where is Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Romeo Menti.
What competition is Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo part of?
Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Vicenza Virtus a 36% chance of winning, Palermo a 41% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Vicenza Virtus and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vicenza Virtus and Palermo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Palermo in?
Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.33 | L5 W-L-D. Palermo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Vicenza Virtus's attack rating (1.06) and Palermo's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.15x) against Vicenza Virtus's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
36%
2.81
23%
4.27
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Vicenza Virtus xG
Total xG
3.19
1.66
Palermo xG
2.81
36%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
19%
5.24
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
7%
14.72
9%
11.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Vicenza Virtus and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Vicenza Virtus and 1.66 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 3 outings, Vicenza Virtus have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo's form line: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Palermo are the form team by 1.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vicenza Virtus are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 2.33 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Palermo in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vicenza Virtus
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vicenza Virtus and Palermo in coming into this match?
Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while Palermo have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 (3.00 PPG).
Have Vicenza Virtus or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Vicenza Virtus have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Palermo in 33%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 100% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Vicenza Virtus, 67% for Palermo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Vicenza Virtus and 67% for Palermo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palermo in 33%; Vicenza Virtus have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vicenza Virtus home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vicenza Virtus play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Vicenza Virtus's games and 67% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vicenza Virtus vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Vicenza Virtus's matches and 67% of Palermo's.
Do Vicenza Virtus and Palermo tend to score early?
Vicenza Virtus have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Palermo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.