Spezia 2-1 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Sudtirol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Sudtirol at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Sudtirol have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sudtirol's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Spezia 1.10 PPG, Sudtirol 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Spezia have won 0, Sudtirol 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Sudtirol in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 48% versus Sudtirol 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 48% | Sudtirol 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.08 xG and Sudtirol 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.797 / defence 1.109 | Sudtirol attack 1.033 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.243. Spezia's attack strength of 0.797 is below the league average — the 1.08 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 28 Spezia games / 66 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 43%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.70 | Draw 3.33 | Sudtirol 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Spezia 40% | Sudtirol 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 27% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Spezia 1.08 / Sudtirol 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.797 / def 1.109 | Sudtirol attack 1.033 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Sudtirol xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Sudtirol kick off?
Spezia vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Spezia 2 - 1 Sudtirol.
Where is Spezia vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Sudtirol part of?
Spezia vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 27% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Spezia and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sudtirol?
Record (1 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 1 | Sudtirol 0W.
What form are Spezia and Sudtirol in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D. Sudtirol (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Spezia's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Sudtirol's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Sudtirol's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
27%
3.69
30%
3.36
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.51
1.42
Sudtirol xG
3.69
27%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
7%
15.32
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.6 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Spezia and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Spezia and 1.42 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia's recent record stands at 11W 25D 31L from 67 games, a 0.87 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Sudtirol, meanwhile, have gone 25W 24D 18L across 67 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Spezia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 6W 14D 13L from 33 games — 0.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sudtirol's away record stands at 12W 11D 10L across 33 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.10 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Sudtirol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 11W 25D 31L in their last 67 games (0.87 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 25W 24D 18L in their last 67 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 0.97 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Spezia or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Spezia won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Spezia's record when hosting Sudtirol specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Spezia
2
Draws
1
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Spezia have won 3, Sudtirol have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Spezia 6-1 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Sudtirol?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 46%, Sudtirol 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Spezia) and 36% (Sudtirol).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol in 36%; Spezia have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Spezia's recent matches and 48% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Spezia's recent games and 36% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Spezia defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Sudtirol 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.08 xG and Sudtirol 1.42 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Spezia beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against Sudtirol attack 1.03 / defence 1.08, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 27% | Draw 30% | Sudtirol 43%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 48%, Sudtirol 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Sudtirol's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.87. Form was overturned, with Spezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.