Cosenza 0-0 Cittadella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cosenza at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cosenza vs Cittadella encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 29 as Cosenza welcome Cittadella to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 March 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Cittadella have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Cosenza carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.40. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cosenza, 1 for Cittadella and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 0–2 with Cittadella winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Cittadella trading profile (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 50% versus Cittadella 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 36% | Cittadella 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.52 xG and Cittadella 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.974 / defence 1.117 | Cittadella attack 0.767 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.243. Cittadella bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Cosenza games / 66 Cittadella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 25%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Cittadella 4.00. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 60% | Cittadella 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Cittadella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Mar 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 46% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Cosenza 1.52 / Cittadella 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.974 / def 1.117 | Cittadella attack 0.767 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Cittadella xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Cittadella kick off?
Cosenza vs Cittadella kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 March 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Cosenza 0 - 0 Cittadella.
Where is Cosenza vs Cittadella being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Cittadella part of?
Cosenza vs Cittadella is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 46% chance of winning, Cittadella a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cosenza and Cittadella will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Cittadella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cittadella?
Record (5 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 3 | Cittadella 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Cittadella in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Cittadella (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.97x the league average against Cittadella's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cittadella's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
46%
2.16
29%
3.47
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.59
1.06
Cittadella xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
5%
18.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.2 | 6.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Cittadella expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.06 for Cittadella, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Cittadella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza's recent record stands at 16W 23D 27L from 66 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Cittadella, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 25L across 66 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.08 PPG, Cittadella on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 11W 11D 10L from 32 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cittadella's away record stands at 7W 12D 13L across 32 trips, a 1.03 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Cittadella are on 1.02 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Current Season
Cittadella
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Cittadella in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 16W 23D 27L in their last 66 games (1.08 PPG), while Cittadella have gone 19W 22D 25L in their last 66 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Cittadella away?
Cosenza's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.38 PPG; Cittadella away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cosenza and Cittadella runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cosenza's record when hosting Cittadella specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cosenza
5
Draws
2
Cittadella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Cittadella?
From 8 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Cittadella have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Cittadella last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Cosenza 0-1 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Cittadella?
Cittadella have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 59%, Cittadella 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cosenza) and 34% (Cittadella).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cittadella in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Cittadella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Cittadella?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Cosenza's games and 53% of Cittadella's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Cittadella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cosenza's recent games and 34% of Cittadella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Cittadella tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cittadella in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cosenza's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Cittadella finished level at 0-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.52 xG and Cittadella 1.06 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cosenza fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Cittadella landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.97 / defence 1.12 against Cittadella attack 0.77 / defence 1.24, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 46% | Draw 29% | Cittadella 25%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 36%, Cittadella 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cittadella's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.08 PPG, Cittadella 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.