Spezia 1-3 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Spezia take on Juve Stabia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to Stadio Alberto Picco to face Spezia in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Alberto Picco, Spezia have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Juve Stabia (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Juve Stabia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Juve Stabia's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Spezia against 1.40 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Spezia lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Spezia — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 36% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 46% versus Juve Stabia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 39% | Juve Stabia 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.07 xG and Juve Stabia 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 0.901 / defence 0.997 | Juve Stabia attack 0.953 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.040. Data: 41 Spezia games / 41 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 33% | Draw 38% | Juve Stabia 29%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 3.03 | Draw 2.63 | Juve Stabia 3.45. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 50% | Juve Stabia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 33% | Draw 38% | Juve Stabia 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Spezia 1.07 / Juve Stabia 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 0.901 / def 0.997 | Juve Stabia attack 0.953 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Juve Stabia xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Spezia vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 September 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Spezia 1 - 3 Juve Stabia.
Where is Spezia vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Juve Stabia part of?
Spezia vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 33% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 29% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Spezia and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 1 | Juve Stabia 0W.
What form are Spezia and Juve Stabia in?
Spezia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Spezia's attack rating (0.90) and Juve Stabia's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.95x) against Spezia's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
38%
2.61
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.06
0.99
Juve Stabia xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Spezia and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Spezia and 0.99 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Spezia's recent record stands at 19W 17D 8L from 44 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juve Stabia, meanwhile, have gone 16W 16D 12L across 44 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-L-D-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Juve Stabia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Spezia against 1.45 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Spezia have managed 11W 5D 5L from 21 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juve Stabia's away record stands at 4W 10D 7L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Spezia are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.05 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Early Season
Juve Stabia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 19W 17D 8L in their last 44 games (1.68 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 16W 16D 12L in their last 44 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Juve Stabia away?
Spezia's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.81 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Spezia or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Juve Stabia have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spezia won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Spezia have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Spezia
1
Draws
2
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 1, Juve Stabia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Juve Stabia 3-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Juve Stabia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 48%, Juve Stabia 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Spezia) and 43% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Spezia's recent matches and 57% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Spezia's recent games and 43% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Juve Stabia cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Spezia 1-3 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.07 xG and Juve Stabia 0.99 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Juve Stabia outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Juve Stabia attack 0.95 / defence 1.00, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 33% | Draw 38% | Juve Stabia 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Juve Stabia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 39%, Juve Stabia 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.68 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.