Spezia 0-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Spezia vs Brescia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Brescia at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie B, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Spezia's home record at Stadio Alberto Picco: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Brescia's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On current form, Spezia have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Spezia, 0 for Brescia and 3 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Spezia in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Brescia in-play tendencies (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 47% versus Brescia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Spezia 41% | Brescia 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.59 xG and Brescia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.242 / defence 0.988 | Brescia attack 0.824 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.095. Data: 68 Spezia games / 68 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 52% | Draw 29% | Brescia 19%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Brescia 5.26. Spezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 0.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Spezia 50% | Brescia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 52% | Draw 29% | Brescia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Spezia 1.59 / Brescia 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.242 / def 0.988 | Brescia attack 0.824 / def 1.039 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Spezia (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Brescia xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Brescia kick off?
Spezia vs Brescia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Brescia?
Spezia 0 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Spezia vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Brescia part of?
Spezia vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 52% chance of winning, Brescia a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Spezia and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Brescia?
Record (3 meetings): Spezia 0W | Draws 3 | Brescia 0W.
What form are Spezia and Brescia in?
Spezia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Brescia (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Spezia's attack rating (1.24) and Brescia's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.47
19%
5.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.48
0.89
Brescia xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.21
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
21%
4.69
4%
25.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.4 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.8 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Spezia and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Spezia and 0.89 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Spezia come into this having played 68 games, going 23W 30D 15L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D.
On the other side, Brescia sit at 1.16 PPG from 68 outings (17W 28D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 1.46 PPG, Brescia on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Spezia's home form reads 15W 12D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Brescia have taken 0.97 points per game from 33 outings (7W 11D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Spezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.15 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Brescia in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 23W 30D 15L in their last 68 games (1.46 PPG), while Brescia have gone 17W 28D 23L in their last 68 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Brescia away?
Spezia's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.73 PPG; Brescia away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Spezia or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Spezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Brescia in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Spezia's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Spezia
3
Draws
1
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Brescia?
From 4 meetings on record, Spezia have won 0, Brescia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Spezia 0-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 52%, Brescia 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Spezia) and 39% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Spezia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Spezia have failed to score in 30% of games; Brescia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Spezia's games and 61% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Spezia vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Spezia's recent games and 39% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Brescia tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Brescia in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Brescia defy the odds to beat Spezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Spezia 0-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.59 xG and Brescia 0.89 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Spezia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.24 / defence 0.99 against Brescia attack 0.82 / defence 1.04, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 52% | Draw 29% | Brescia 19%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Brescia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 41%, Brescia 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Brescia's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 1.46 PPG, Brescia 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.