Sampdoria 0-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sampdoria at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Modena at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie B, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 25 August 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D D W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Sampdoria haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sampdoria are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Modena haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Modena have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Sampdoria) versus 1.00 (Modena). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
Sampdoria hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Modena, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Sampdoria winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sampdoria and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Modena trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 47% versus Modena 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 37% | Modena 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.16 xG and Modena 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.893 / defence 0.908 | Modena attack 1.021 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.107. Data: 38 Sampdoria games / 38 Modena games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 37% | Draw 33% | Modena 30%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Modena 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sampdoria as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sampdoria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 20% | Modena 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 25 Aug 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 37% | Draw 33% | Modena 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 46% | xG Sampdoria 1.16 / Modena 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.893 / def 0.908 | Modena attack 1.021 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Modena xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Modena kick off?
Sampdoria vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 25 August 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Modena?
Sampdoria 0 - 2 Modena.
Where is Sampdoria vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Modena part of?
Sampdoria vs Modena is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 37% chance of winning, Modena a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Sampdoria and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
Record (4 meetings): Sampdoria 3W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.89x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
37%
2.72
33%
3.01
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.19
1.03
Modena xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
13%
7.59
9%
10.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.4 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.03 for Modena, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 16D 13L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-W. Sampdoria haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.18 PPG from 38 outings (10W 15D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-L across their last five. Modena haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sampdoria on 1.13 PPG, Modena on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 7W 7D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.00 points per game from 19 outings (4W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.26 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Pre-Season
Modena
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 9W 16D 13L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Modena have gone 10W 15D 13L in their last 38 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Modena away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.47 PPG; Modena away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Modena in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sampdoria and Modena runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 4, Modena have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Modena?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 26%, Modena 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Sampdoria and 47% for Modena.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Sampdoria have failed to score in 37% of games; Modena in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 58% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Sampdoria's recent games and 47% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Modena tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Modena in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sampdoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Sampdoria 0-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.16 xG and Modena 1.03 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Modena outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.89 / defence 0.91 against Modena attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 37% | Draw 33% | Modena 30%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Modena win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 37%, Modena 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Modena's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sampdoria 1.13 PPG, Modena 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.