Sampdoria 2-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 39%, yet in-form Sampdoria provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sampdoria vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sampdoria host Modena at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie B (matchday 23). Kick-off is Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Sampdoria — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sampdoria's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Modena have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Modena have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sampdoria carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Sampdoria's games and 70% of Modena's (from Sampdoria's last 10 home games and Modena's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Sampdoria, 0 for Modena and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Sampdoria 2–0 Modena — a Sampdoria win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sampdoria trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Modena trading profile (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 52% versus Modena 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 47% | Modena 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.35 xG and Modena 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.819 / defence 1.283 | Modena attack 0.956 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.196. Modena's defence rating of 1.221 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sampdoria's projected output up. Sampdoria's defence rating of 1.283 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Modena's projected output up. Data: built from Sampdoria's last 22 games and Modena's last 60.
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 27% | Modena 39%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 2.96 | Draw 3.67 | Modena 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sampdoria (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.82 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sampdoria 60% (last 10 home games) | Modena 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 34% | Draw 27% | Modena 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Sampdoria 1.35 / Modena 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.819 / def 1.283 | Modena attack 0.956 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.196 • Poisson stance: Modena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Modena xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sampdoria vs Modena FAQs
What time does Sampdoria vs Modena kick off?
Sampdoria vs Modena kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Modena?
Sampdoria 2 - 2 Modena.
Where is Sampdoria vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Modena part of?
Sampdoria vs Modena is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 34% chance of winning, Modena a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sampdoria and Modena will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sampdoria vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.82x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Sampdoria's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sampdoria's last 22 games and Modena's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
34%
2.96
27%
3.67
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.82
1.47
Modena xG
2.96
34%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.85
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sampdoria vs Modena Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.47 for Modena, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sampdoria come into this having played 60 games, going 11W 14D 35L for 0.78 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.32 PPG from 60 outings (21W 16D 23L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Modena carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sampdoria's home form reads 5W 8D 17L across their last 30 home games, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.10 points per game from their last 30 away games (9W 6D 15L).
The Goals Picture
Sampdoria are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.20 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Modena
Blended
Sampdoria (Home) vs Modena (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sampdoria
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Sampdoria vs Modena Form FAQs
What form are Sampdoria and Modena in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 11W 14D 35L in their last 60 games (0.78 PPG), while Modena have gone 21W 16D 23L in their last 60 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 0.77 PPG; Modena away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sampdoria's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sampdoria
1
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Sampdoria vs Modena H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Modena?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sampdoria have won 4, Modena have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Modena last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Modena 1-2 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Modena?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 47%, Modena 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Sampdoria) and 57% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sampdoria vs Modena Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sampdoria and Modena matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Sampdoria's games and 63% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sampdoria and Modena matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Sampdoria's recent games and 57% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Modena matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 67% of Modena's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sampdoria and Modena share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 23, as Sampdoria and Modena drew 2-2 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.35 xG and Modena 1.47 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.82 / defence 1.28 against Modena attack 0.96 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 34% | Draw 27% | Modena 39%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 47%, Modena 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Modena arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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