Palermo 3-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palermo at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Palermo face Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bari make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Current Form
Palermo's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Palermo's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bari (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Bari's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Palermo's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Palermo's games and 70% of Bari's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Palermo edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2023, ended Palermo 0–0 Bari — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 64%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 58% versus Bari 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Palermo 47% | Bari 33%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Palermo surrender their half-time lead 44% of the time, while Bari have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 64% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bari surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Palermo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 1.81 xG and Bari 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 1.263 / defence 1.218 | Bari attack 0.951 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.216. Palermo carry an above-average attack rating of 1.263 — their 1.81 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Palermo's defence rating of 1.218 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bari's projected output up. Data: built from Palermo's last 60 games and Bari's last 60.
Result probabilities: Palermo 47% | Draw 24% | Bari 30%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 2.15 | Draw 4.20 | Bari 3.38. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 64% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Palermo's last 10 home games and Bari's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Palermo 70% (last 10 home games) | Bari 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, matchday 23 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 47% | Draw 24% | Bari 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 64% (No 36%) | xG Palermo 1.81 / Bari 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 1.263 / def 1.218 | Bari attack 0.951 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Palermo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Bari xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Palermo vs Bari FAQs
What time does Palermo vs Bari kick off?
Palermo vs Bari kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 2 February 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Bari?
Palermo 3 - 0 Bari.
Where is Palermo vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Bari part of?
Palermo vs Bari is a Serie B fixture (matchday 23) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 47% chance of winning, Bari a 30% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Palermo and Bari will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Palermo vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palermo's attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.95x) against Palermo's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.41.
These ratings are built from Palermo's last 60 games and Bari's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
47%
2.15
24%
4.20
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Palermo xG
Total xG
3.22
1.41
Bari xG
2.15
47%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.75
Clean Sheet
24%
4.09
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
5%
20.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Palermo vs Bari Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Palermo and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Palermo and 1.41 for Bari, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 21W 22D 17L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Bari's form line: 22W 24D 14L from 60 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.42 PPG for Palermo against 1.50 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 30 home games (14W 9D 7L).
On the road, Bari have gone 11W 11D 8L from their last 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.25 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Bari
Blended
Palermo (Home) vs Bari (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Palermo
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Palermo vs Bari Form FAQs
What form are Palermo and Bari in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 21W 22D 17L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Bari have gone 22W 24D 14L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Bari away?
Palermo's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.70 PPG; Bari away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Palermo or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bari in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 30 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Palermo have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won Palermo 3-0 Bari on 2 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
2
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Palermo vs Bari H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Bari?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Palermo have won 5, Bari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Bari last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 January 2026: Bari 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Bari?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 62% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 53%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Palermo) and 30% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Palermo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Palermo have failed to score in 27% of games; Bari in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Palermo vs Bari Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Palermo and Bari matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Palermo and Bari matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Palermo's recent games and 30% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Bari matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Palermo's recent matches and 63% of Bari's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palermo run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Bari 3-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 1.81 xG and Bari 1.41 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 1.26 / defence 1.22 against Bari attack 0.95 / defence 1.07, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 47% | Draw 24% | Bari 30%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 47%, Bari 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Bari's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.42 PPG, Bari 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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