Sampdoria 0-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cremonese make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Sampdoria in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Thursday 1 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Sampdoria (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cremonese have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Cremonese have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Cremonese are 0.90 PPG clear of Sampdoria in recent Serie B fixtures (1.90 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sampdoria lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 59% versus Cremonese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 47% | Cremonese 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 0.85 xG and Cremonese 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.711 / defence 0.885 | Cremonese attack 1.210 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.186. Sampdoria's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cremonese have an above-average attack strength of 1.210 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 72 Sampdoria games / 72 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 23% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 44%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 4.35 | Draw 3.12 | Cremonese 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cremonese as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.12 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sampdoria 30% | Cremonese 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Thursday 1 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 23% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Sampdoria 0.85 / Cremonese 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.711 / def 0.885 | Cremonese attack 1.210 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Cremonese xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Cremonese kick off?
Sampdoria vs Cremonese kicked off at 14:00 on Thursday 1 May 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Cremonese?
Sampdoria 0 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Sampdoria vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Cremonese part of?
Sampdoria vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 23% chance of winning, Cremonese a 44% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Sampdoria and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Cremonese?
Record (5 meetings): Sampdoria 1W | Draws 2 | Cremonese 2W.
What form are Sampdoria and Cremonese in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sampdoria's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.85. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (1.21x) against Sampdoria's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
23%
4.28
32%
3.10
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.12
1.27
Cremonese xG
4.28
23%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
7%
15.25
19%
5.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 15.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.0 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Sampdoria and 1.27 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 23W 23D 27L from 73 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five.
Cremonese, meanwhile, have gone 34W 22D 17L across 73 games — 1.70 PPG, with W-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.44 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sampdoria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 12W 10D 14L from 36 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cremonese's away record stands at 17W 10D 9L across 36 trips, a 1.69 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.53 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Current Season
Cremonese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 23W 23D 27L in their last 73 games (1.26 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 34W 22D 17L in their last 73 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.28 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Sampdoria or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sampdoria have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Cremonese in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sampdoria have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
3
Draws
2
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Cremonese?
From 6 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Cremonese have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2025, when Sampdoria 0-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Sampdoria and Cremonese?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 47%, Cremonese 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sampdoria) and 58% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cremonese in 31%; Sampdoria have failed to score in 28% of games; Cremonese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sampdoria's recent matches and 53% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sampdoria vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sampdoria's recent games and 58% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sampdoria and Cremonese tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sampdoria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sampdoria and Cremonese finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 0.85 xG and Cremonese 1.27 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sampdoria fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.71 / defence 0.89 against Cremonese attack 1.21 / defence 0.93, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 23% | Draw 32% | Cremonese 44%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 47%, Cremonese 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.