Pisa 1-2 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Pisa take on Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Cosenza meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B (matchday 8). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Pisa's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Pisa have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cosenza (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cosenza's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Pisa edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2023, ended Pisa 0–1 Cosenza — a Cosenza win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Cosenza — key trading statistics (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 52% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Pisa 41% | Cosenza 39%). Note also that Cosenza surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Pisa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.01 xG and Cosenza 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.043 / defence 1.047 | Cosenza attack 0.846 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.133. Data: built from Pisa's last 44 games and Cosenza's last 45.
Result probabilities: Pisa 31% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 31%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.20 | Draw 2.65 | Cosenza 3.23. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.01 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Pisa's last 10 home games and Cosenza's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 56%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Pisa 80% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 8 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 31% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Pisa 1.01 / Cosenza 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.043 / def 1.047 | Cosenza attack 0.846 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Cosenza xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pisa vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Pisa vs Cosenza kick off?
Pisa vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Cosenza?
Pisa 1 - 2 Cosenza.
Where is Pisa vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Cosenza part of?
Pisa vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 8) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 31% chance of winning, Cosenza a 31% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Pisa and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Pisa vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pisa's attack rating (1.04) and Cosenza's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.85x) against Pisa's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from Pisa's last 44 games and Cosenza's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.20
38%
2.65
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.01
1.00
Cosenza xG
3.20
31%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
36%
2.74
Win to Nil
11%
8.74
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pisa vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Pisa and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Pisa and 1.00 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pisa's recent record stands at 13W 16D 15L from 44 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 10W 16D 18L across 44 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Pisa against 1.05 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 7W 6D 8L from their last 21 home games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 2W 8D 11L across their last 21 away games, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.86 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
Pisa (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pisa
Early Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Pisa vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Pisa and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 13W 16D 15L in their last 44 games (1.25 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 10W 16D 18L in their last 44 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Cosenza away?
Pisa's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.29 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Pisa or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Cosenza in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pisa won Cosenza 0-3 Pisa on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 2D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Pisa
3
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Pisa vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Cosenza?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Pisa have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 March 2025: Cosenza 0-3 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Cosenza?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 62%, Cosenza 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Pisa) and 33% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Cosenza in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pisa vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pisa and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Pisa's recent matches and 48% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Pisa and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Pisa's recent games and 33% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Cosenza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Pisa's recent matches and 57% of Cosenza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.01 xG and Cosenza 1.00 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cosenza outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.04 / defence 1.05 against Cosenza attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 31% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 41%, Cosenza 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Cosenza's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.25 PPG, Cosenza 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.57 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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