Feralpisalo 1-2 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Feralpisalo take on Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 8 as Feralpisalo welcome Spezia to Stadio Leonardo Garilli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 September 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Feralpisalo have gone 1W 1D 5L from 7 outings — a 0.57 PPG return. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.43 goals per game and conceding 1.86 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in just 29% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Feralpisalo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feralpisalo at Stadio Leonardo Garilli this season: 0W 1D 2L from 3 home games — 0.33 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Spezia — All Games: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Spezia have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Feralpisalo 0.57 PPG, Spezia 0.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Feralpisalo in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 71% of games.
Spezia in-play and half-time data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 29% versus Spezia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 43% | Spezia 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.04 xG and Spezia 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.698 / defence 1.183 | Spezia attack 0.793 / defence 1.404. League average goals — home 1.058 / away 1.133. Feralpisalo's attack strength of 0.698 is below the league average — the 1.04 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Spezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.404 — this is suppressing Feralpisalo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Feralpisalo games / 6 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 37% | Spezia 32%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Spezia 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Feralpisalo 33% | Spezia 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 37% | Spezia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG Feralpisalo 1.04 / Spezia 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.698 / def 1.183 | Spezia attack 0.793 / def 1.404 | league avg home 1.058 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Spezia xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feralpisalo vs Spezia kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Spezia kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Spezia?
Feralpisalo 1 - 2 Spezia.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Spezia part of?
Feralpisalo vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 31% chance of winning, Spezia a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Feralpisalo and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Feralpisalo vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Spezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Feralpisalo and Spezia in?
Feralpisalo (all comps): 1W-1D-5L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.43 / GA 1.86 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Spezia (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Feralpisalo's attack rating (0.70) and Spezia's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.04 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.24
37%
2.70
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.10
1.06
Spezia xG
3.24
31%
Home win
2.70
37%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
35%
2.82
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
11%
8.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 13.0 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.06 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feralpisalo come into this having played 7 games, going 1W 1D 5L for 0.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Feralpisalo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 0.29 PPG from 7 outings (0W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feralpisalo on 0.57 PPG, Spezia on 0.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Feralpisalo's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 0.33 points per game from 3 outings (0W 1D 2L).
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 0.71 scored and 1.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Feralpisalo have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Early Season
Spezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feralpisalo and Spezia in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 1W 1D 5L in their last 7 games (0.57 PPG), while Spezia have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Spezia away?
Feralpisalo's home record (0.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.33 PPG; Spezia away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Spezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Feralpisalo have won 1, Spezia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2024, when Spezia 0-2 Feralpisalo.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Spezia see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Feralpisalo 33% BTTS, Spezia 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Feralpisalo and 67% for Spezia.
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 67% of games; Spezia in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feralpisalo play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 33% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Feralpisalo vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Feralpisalo's recent games and 67% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Feralpisalo and Spezia tend to score early?
Feralpisalo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Spezia in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Feralpisalo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Feralpisalo 1-2 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.04 xG and Spezia 1.06 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Spezia outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.70 / defence 1.18 against Spezia attack 0.79 / defence 1.40, drawn from 7/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 31% | Draw 37% | Spezia 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Spezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 43%, Spezia 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did.
Spezia's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feralpisalo 0.57 PPG, Spezia 0.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.