Pisa 1-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Pisa vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 5 April 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Pisa are significantly better at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani than their overall form suggests.
Modena have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Modena's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Pisa, 1.30 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Pisa 1W, Modena 3W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pisa 64% and Modena 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 55% | Modena 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.68 xG and Modena 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 1.274 / defence 0.898 | Modena attack 0.868 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.141. Pisa carry an above-average attack strength of 1.274 — their λ of 1.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 69 Pisa games / 69 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 54% | Draw 27% | Modena 18%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Modena 5.56. Pisa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 50% | Modena 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 54% | Draw 27% | Modena 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Pisa 1.68 / Modena 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 1.274 / def 0.898 | Modena attack 0.868 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Pisa (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Modena xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Modena kick off?
Pisa vs Modena kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Modena?
Pisa 1 - 2 Modena.
Where is Pisa vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Modena part of?
Pisa vs Modena is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 54% chance of winning, Modena a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pisa and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Modena?
Record (5 meetings): Pisa 1W | Draws 1 | Modena 3W.
What form are Pisa and Modena in?
Pisa (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pisa's attack at 1.27x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.68 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.87x) against Pisa's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
54%
1.84
27%
3.64
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.57
0.89
Modena xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
3%
29.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.4 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Pisa and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Pisa and 0.89 for Modena, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa come into this having played 69 games, going 29W 20D 20L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.23 PPG from 69 outings (18W 31D 20L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Pisa against 1.23 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Pisa's home form reads 17W 11D 6L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 0.97 points per game from 34 outings (5W 18D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.14 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Modena in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 29W 20D 20L in their last 69 games (1.55 PPG), while Modena have gone 18W 31D 20L in their last 69 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Modena away?
Pisa's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.82 PPG; Modena away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Modena go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pisa have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Pisa
1
Draws
4
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Pisa have won 1, Modena have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Pisa 1-2 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 71%, Modena 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Pisa) and 41% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Modena in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Pisa's games and 59% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Pisa vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Pisa's recent games and 41% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Modena tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Modena in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.68 xG and Modena 0.89 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Modena outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 1.27 / defence 0.90 against Modena attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 54% | Draw 27% | Modena 18%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 55%, Modena 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pisa 1.55 PPG, Modena 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.