Padova vs Mantova Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Padova face Mantova.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Padova host Mantova at Stadio Euganeo in Serie B (matchday 28). Kick-off is Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Padova — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Padova at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Padova are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Mantova stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Padova at 1.20 PPG versus Mantova's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Padova have won 0, Mantova 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 17 Jan 2026, ended Padova 1–2 Mantova — a Mantova win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Padova trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Mantova trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Padova 51% versus Mantova 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Padova 39% | Mantova 49%). Note also that Mantova surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Padova recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Padova 1.02 xG and Mantova 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Padova attack 0.941 / defence 1.022 | Mantova attack 1.064 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.262 / away 1.236. Data: built from Padova's last 49 games and Mantova's last 49.
Result probabilities: Padova 27% | Draw 31% | Mantova 42%. Fair-value odds: Padova 3.75 | Draw 3.23 | Mantova 2.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.36 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Padova 30% (last 10 home games) | Mantova 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Padova vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Euganeo • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Padova 27% | Draw 31% | Mantova 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Padova 1.02 / Mantova 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Padova attack 0.941 / def 1.022 | Mantova attack 1.064 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.262 / away 1.236 • Poisson stance: Mantova (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Padova xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Mantova xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Padova vs Mantova FAQs
What time does Padova vs Mantova kick off?
Padova vs Mantova is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 UK time on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Stadio Euganeo.
Where is Padova vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Euganeo.
What competition is Padova vs Mantova part of?
Padova vs Mantova is a Serie B fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Padova vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Padova a 27% chance of winning, Mantova a 42% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Padova vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Padova and Mantova will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Padova vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Padova's attack at 0.94x the league average against Mantova's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Padova's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Padova's last 49 games and Mantova's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
27%
3.75
31%
3.23
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Padova xG
Total xG
2.36
1.34
Mantova xG
3.75
27%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
7%
14.39
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Padova vs Mantova Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Padova vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Padova and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Padova and 1.34 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Padova vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Padova come into this having played 49 games, going 16W 13D 20L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Mantova sit at 1.33 PPG from 49 outings (18W 11D 20L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Padova on 1.24 PPG, Mantova on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Padova's home form reads 8W 9D 7L across their last 24 home games, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Mantova have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 24 away games (7W 6D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
Padova are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.22 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Padova
Blended
Mantova
Blended
Padova (Home) vs Mantova (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Padova
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Padova vs Mantova Form FAQs
What form are Padova and Mantova in coming into this match?
Padova have gone 16W 13D 20L in their last 49 games (1.24 PPG), while Mantova have gone 18W 11D 20L in their last 49 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Padova at home or Mantova away?
Padova's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Padova at home: 1.38 PPG; Mantova away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from November 2025. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 17 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Padova
0
Draws
2
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Padova vs Mantova H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Padova and Mantova?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Padova have won 0, Mantova have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Padova and Mantova last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 January 2026: Padova 1-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Padova and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Padova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Padova 58%, Mantova 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Padova) and 50% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Mantova in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Padova home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Padova vs Mantova Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Padova and Mantova matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Padova's recent matches and 46% of Mantova's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Padova and Mantova matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Padova's recent games and 50% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Padova and Mantova matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Padova's recent matches and 75% of Mantova's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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