Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Vicenza Virtus in Serie B, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Tuesday 2 March 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Sudtirol have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sudtirol have posted 2W 6D 2L at Stadio Marco Druso — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Marco Druso.
Vicenza Virtus's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games (1.12 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vicenza Virtus's away record: 1W 2D 2L from 5 road trips in Serie B this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Sudtirol, 1.12 for Vicenza Virtus — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 20% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Vicenza Virtus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (8 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 38% versus Vicenza Virtus 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 25% | Vicenza Virtus 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.48 xG and Vicenza Virtus 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.839 / defence 0.721 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.916 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Sudtirol's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.721 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Sudtirol games / 7 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 51% | Draw 30% | Vicenza Virtus 20%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | Vicenza Virtus 5.00. Sudtirol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 40% | Vicenza Virtus 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Mar 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 51% | Draw 30% | Vicenza Virtus 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 45% | xG Sudtirol 1.48 / Vicenza Virtus 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.839 / def 0.721 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.916 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Vicenza Virtus xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Tuesday 2 March 2027 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 51% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sudtirol's attack rating (0.84) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vicenza Virtus's attack (0.92x) against Sudtirol's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.1%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
51%
1.97
30%
3.38
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.31
0.83
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
22.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.2 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.83 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 8 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 3W 4D 1L record — W-D-W-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sudtirol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sudtirol are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.80 PPG from 5 outings (2W 3D 0L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.38 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vicenza Virtus in 62%.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 3W 4D 1L in their last 8 games (1.62 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.80 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Vicenza Virtus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Vicenza Virtus in 12%.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol tend to start slowly — only 20% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 20%, Vicenza Virtus 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Sudtirol) and 80% (Vicenza Virtus).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 80% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Vicenza Virtus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 60% of Vicenza Virtus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Sudtirol's recent games and 80% of Vicenza Virtus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 20% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.