Cosenza 2-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cosenza face Sampdoria.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Sampdoria travel to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to take on Cosenza in Serie B (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have gone 4W 5D 1L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cosenza at home: 2W 5D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sampdoria stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Sampdoria away from home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Cosenza) versus 1.30 (Sampdoria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Cosenza's games and 60% of Sampdoria's (from Cosenza's last 10 home games and Sampdoria's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Cosenza, 2 for Sampdoria and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 23 Feb 2024, ended Cosenza 1–2 Sampdoria — a Sampdoria win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cosenza trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Sampdoria trading profile (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 52% versus Sampdoria 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 40% | Sampdoria 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cosenza surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Sampdoria have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.42 xG and Sampdoria 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.911 / defence 0.819 | Sampdoria attack 1.229 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.061. Sampdoria have an above-average attack rating of 1.229, which lifts their away xG to 1.07. Data: built from Cosenza's last 42 games and Sampdoria's last 42.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 27%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.31 | Draw 3.34 | Sampdoria 3.75. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cosenza offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cosenza 60% (last 10 home games) | Sampdoria 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie B, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 43% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Cosenza 1.42 / Sampdoria 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.911 / def 0.819 | Sampdoria attack 1.229 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sampdoria xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cosenza vs Sampdoria FAQs
What time does Cosenza vs Sampdoria kick off?
Cosenza vs Sampdoria kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Sampdoria?
Cosenza 2 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Cosenza vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Sampdoria part of?
Cosenza vs Sampdoria is a Serie B fixture (matchday 5) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 43% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cosenza and Sampdoria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cosenza vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.91) and Sampdoria's defence rating (1.19), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Cosenza's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cosenza's last 42 games and Sampdoria's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
43%
2.31
30%
3.34
27%
3.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.49
1.07
Sampdoria xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.75
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.71
6%
15.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.9 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cosenza vs Sampdoria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.07 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cosenza's recent record stands at 12W 16D 14L from 42 games, a 1.24 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Sampdoria, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 16L across 42 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cosenza on 1.24 PPG, Sampdoria on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 6W 8D 7L from their last 21 home games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sampdoria's away record stands at 8W 6D 7L across their last 21 away games, a 1.43 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cosenza are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.31 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 62%.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
Cosenza (Home) vs Sampdoria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cosenza
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Cosenza vs Sampdoria Form FAQs
What form are Cosenza and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 12W 16D 14L in their last 42 games (1.24 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 15W 11D 16L in their last 42 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Sampdoria away?
Sampdoria's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.24 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 1 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cosenza's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cosenza
0
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Cosenza vs Sampdoria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Sampdoria?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Cosenza have won 1, Sampdoria have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Sampdoria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 February 2025: Sampdoria 1-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Sampdoria?
Sampdoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 62%, Sampdoria 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Cosenza) and 52% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cosenza vs Sampdoria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cosenza and Sampdoria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cosenza's games and 67% of Sampdoria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cosenza and Sampdoria matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Cosenza's recent games and 52% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Sampdoria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Cosenza's recent matches and 67% of Sampdoria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Sampdoria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Sampdoria 2-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.42 xG and Sampdoria 1.07 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.91 / defence 0.82 against Sampdoria attack 1.23 / defence 1.19, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 43% | Draw 30% | Sampdoria 27%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 40%, Sampdoria 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sampdoria's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.24 PPG, Sampdoria 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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