Salernitana 2-3 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salernitana at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Arechi to take on Salernitana. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Salernitana have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salernitana at Stadio Arechi this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pisa have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pisa are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Salernitana trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Pisa trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Salernitana 60% and Pisa 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 67% | Pisa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.64 xG and Pisa 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 1.181 / defence 1.195 | Pisa attack 1.030 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.061. Data: 4 Salernitana games / 42 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 44% | Draw 27% | Pisa 29%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Pisa 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salernitana are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Pisa (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salernitana offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 70% | Pisa 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 44% | Draw 27% | Pisa 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Salernitana 1.64 / Pisa 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 1.181 / def 1.195 | Pisa attack 1.030 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Salernitana (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Pisa xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Pisa kick off?
Salernitana vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Pisa?
Salernitana 2 - 3 Pisa.
Where is Salernitana vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Pisa part of?
Salernitana vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 44% chance of winning, Pisa a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Salernitana the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Salernitana and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Pisa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Pisa in?
Salernitana (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Pisa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 1.18x the league average against Pisa's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Salernitana Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.68
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.95
1.30
Pisa xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
6%
17.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.2 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.30 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Salernitana have picked up 0.55 PPG on a 4W 11D 27L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Pisa's form line: 13W 15D 14L from 42 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
Venue Form
On home soil, Salernitana have posted 0.65 PPG from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 5W 6D 9L from 20 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pisa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salernitana are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.38 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pisa in 71%.
Last 42 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Early Season
Pisa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Pisa in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 4W 11D 27L in their last 42 games (0.55 PPG), while Pisa have gone 13W 15D 14L in their last 42 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Pisa away?
Pisa's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.65 PPG; Pisa away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Salernitana
0
Draws
2
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Pisa?
From 2 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 0, Pisa have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Pisa 1-0 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Salernitana at 70%, Pisa at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Salernitana and 45% for Pisa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Salernitana's games and 65% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Salernitana vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Salernitana's matches and 45% of Pisa's.
Do Salernitana and Pisa tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Pisa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Pisa defy the odds to beat Salernitana 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pisa beat Salernitana 2-3 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.64 xG and Pisa 1.30 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Pisa outscored their 1.30 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 1.18 / defence 1.20 against Pisa attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 44% | Draw 27% | Pisa 29%, with Salernitana to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Pisa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 67%, Pisa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Pisa's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.29 PPG against 0.55. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pisa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.