Modena 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Frosinone at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Modena have posted 4W 4D 2L at Stadio Alberto Braglia — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Frosinone — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 1.40 PPG versus Frosinone's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Modena have won 0, Frosinone 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Frosinone trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 56% versus Frosinone 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 42% | Frosinone 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.41 xG and Frosinone 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.983 / defence 0.939 | Frosinone attack 0.727 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.040. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Modena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Modena games / 21 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 51% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 16%. Fair-value odds: Modena 1.96 | Draw 3.03 | Frosinone 6.25. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Modena 50% | Frosinone 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 51% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 41% | xG Modena 1.41 / Frosinone 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.983 / def 0.939 | Frosinone attack 0.727 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Modena (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Modena xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Frosinone xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Frosinone kick off?
Modena vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Frosinone?
Modena 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Modena vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Frosinone part of?
Modena vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 51% chance of winning, Frosinone a 16% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Modena and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Frosinone?
Record (3 meetings): Modena 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 2W.
What form are Modena and Frosinone in?
Modena (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-L. Frosinone (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
51%
1.95
33%
3.05
16%
6.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Modena xG
Total xG
2.12
0.71
Frosinone xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
6.22
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
49%
2.03
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
4%
25.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 12.0 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Modena and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Modena and 0.71 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Modena have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 15W 27D 17L record — W-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 12W 19D 28L from 59 games, 0.93 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.22 PPG, Frosinone on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.38 PPG from 29 outings (10W 10D 9L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 3W 10D 16L from 29 away games — 0.66 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.03 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 15W 27D 17L in their last 59 games (1.22 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 12W 19D 28L in their last 59 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Frosinone away?
Modena's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.38 PPG; Frosinone away: 0.66 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Frosinone runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Modena's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Modena
3
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Frosinone?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 0, Frosinone have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Modena 1-2 Frosinone.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 48%, Frosinone 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Modena) and 45% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Modena have failed to score in 28% of games; Frosinone in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Modena's recent matches and 55% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Modena vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Modena's recent games and 45% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Frosinone tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 22, as Modena and Frosinone drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.41 xG and Frosinone 0.71 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Frosinone attack 0.73 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 51% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 16%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 42%, Frosinone 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.22 PPG, Frosinone 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.