Modena 2-2 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Brescia travel to Stadio Alberto Braglia to take on Modena. The game is scheduled for Friday 9 May 2025, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Modena at Stadio Alberto Braglia this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Brescia away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Modena 1.30 PPG, Brescia 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Modena have won 2, Brescia 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (74 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Brescia trading profile (74 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Modena 61% versus Brescia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 46% | Brescia 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.12 xG and Brescia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 1.012 / defence 1.212 | Brescia attack 0.839 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.122. Data: 74 Modena games / 74 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Modena 34% | Draw 32% | Brescia 35%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | Brescia 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Modena 80% | Brescia 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 34% | Draw 32% | Brescia 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Modena 1.12 / Brescia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 1.012 / def 1.212 | Brescia attack 0.839 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.122 • Poisson stance: Brescia (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Brescia xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Brescia kick off?
Modena vs Brescia kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Brescia?
Modena 2 - 2 Brescia.
Where is Modena vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Brescia part of?
Modena vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 34% chance of winning, Brescia a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Modena and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Brescia?
Record (5 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 1 | Brescia 2W.
What form are Modena and Brescia in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Brescia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Modena's attack rating (1.01) and Brescia's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Brescia's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
34%
2.97
32%
3.15
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Modena xG
Total xG
2.26
1.14
Brescia xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
11%
9.30
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.9 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Modena and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Modena and 1.14 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Modena have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 20W 31D 23L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Brescia's form line: 19W 30D 25L from 74 games, 1.18 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.23 PPG, Brescia on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Modena have posted 1.36 PPG from 36 outings (12W 13D 11L).
On the road, Brescia have gone 9W 12D 15L from 36 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Modena are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 1.12 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 74 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Current Season
Brescia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Brescia in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 20W 31D 23L in their last 74 games (1.23 PPG), while Brescia have gone 19W 30D 25L in their last 74 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Brescia away?
Modena's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.36 PPG; Brescia away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Modena's record when hosting Brescia specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Modena
2
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Modena have won 2, Brescia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Modena 2-2 Brescia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 58%, Brescia 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Modena) and 36% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Modena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Brescia in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Brescia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Modena's games and 58% of Brescia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Modena's recent games and 36% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Brescia tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Brescia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Modena and Brescia share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena and Brescia finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.12 xG and Brescia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Brescia outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 1.01 / defence 1.21 against Brescia attack 0.84 / defence 0.85, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Modena 34% | Draw 32% | Brescia 35%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 46%, Brescia 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (74 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Brescia's trading profile (74 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.23 PPG, Brescia 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Modena (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Brescia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.