Modena 3-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Modena vs Bari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Modena host Bari at Stadio Alberto Braglia in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 September 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Modena have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L D L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Alberto Braglia this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Bari have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Modena at 1.40 PPG versus Bari's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Modena, 1 for Bari and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Modena trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bari trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Modena 62% and Bari 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Modena 48% | Bari 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Modena 1.33 xG and Bari 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Modena attack 0.989 / defence 1.106 | Bari attack 0.945 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.051. Data: 40 Modena games / 40 Bari games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Modena 38% | Draw 35% | Bari 27%. Fair-value odds: Modena 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Bari 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Modena at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Modena 90% | Bari 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Modena vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Braglia • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Sep 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Modena 38% | Draw 35% | Bari 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 53% | xG Modena 1.33 / Bari 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Modena attack 0.989 / def 1.106 | Bari attack 0.945 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.051 • Poisson stance: Modena (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Modena xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Bari xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Modena vs Bari kick off?
Modena vs Bari kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 September 2025 at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What was the final score in Modena vs Bari?
Modena 3 - 0 Bari.
Where is Modena vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Braglia.
What competition is Modena vs Bari part of?
Modena vs Bari is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Modena vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Modena a 38% chance of winning, Bari a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Modena vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Modena and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Modena vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Bari?
Record (6 meetings): Modena 2W | Draws 3 | Bari 1W.
What form are Modena and Bari in?
Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Bari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Modena's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Bari's attack versus Modena's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
38%
2.62
35%
2.86
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Modena xG
Total xG
2.43
1.10
Bari xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
13%
7.85
7%
14.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.9 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Modena vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Modena and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Modena and 1.10 for Bari, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Modena vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Modena come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 16D 13L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bari sit at 1.23 PPG from 40 outings (10W 19D 11L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Modena on 1.23 PPG, Bari on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Modena's home form reads 6W 9D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Bari have taken 0.90 points per game from 20 outings (3W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Modena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Modena are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.08 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Modena
Early Season
Bari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Modena and Bari in coming into this match?
Modena have gone 11W 16D 13L in their last 40 games (1.23 PPG), while Bari have gone 10W 19D 11L in their last 40 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Modena at home or Bari away?
Modena's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Modena at home: 1.35 PPG; Bari away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Modena or Bari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Modena have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Bari in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Modena and Bari runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Dec 2022, when Bari won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Modena's record when hosting Bari specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Modena
3
Draws
2
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Modena and Bari?
From 8 meetings on record, Modena have won 3, Bari have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Modena and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Bari 3-1 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Modena and Bari?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Modena 70%, Bari 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Modena) and 35% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Bari in 35%; Bari in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Modena home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Modena play Bari?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Modena's games and 50% of Bari's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Modena vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Modena's recent games and 35% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Modena and Bari tend to score early?
Modena have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Bari in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Modena run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Bari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Bari 3-0 at Stadio Alberto Braglia, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Modena 1.33 xG and Bari 1.10 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Modena beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bari landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Modena attack 0.99 / defence 1.11 against Bari attack 0.94 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Modena 38% | Draw 35% | Bari 27%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Modena 48%, Bari 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Modena's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Bari's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Modena 1.23 PPG, Bari 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Modena (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.