Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Mantova at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Vicenza Virtus travel to Stadio Danilo Martelli to take on Mantova. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 May 2027, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Mantova have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Mantova at Stadio Danilo Martelli this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie B games this season, Vicenza Virtus have recorded 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.38 per game is modest, conceding 1.88 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vicenza Virtus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Mantova carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.88 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.12. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Mantova in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Vicenza Virtus in-play and half-time data (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Mantova 62% and Vicenza Virtus 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Mantova 62% | Vicenza Virtus 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.89 xG and Vicenza Virtus 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 1.074 / defence 0.988 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.916 / defence 1.301. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Vicenza Virtus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.301 — this is suppressing Mantova's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Mantova games / 7 Vicenza Virtus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 54% | Draw 25% | Vicenza Virtus 21%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Vicenza Virtus 4.76. Mantova hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mantova at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: Mantova 40% | Vicenza Virtus 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 54% | Draw 25% | Vicenza Virtus 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Mantova 1.89 / Vicenza Virtus 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 1.074 / def 0.988 | Vicenza Virtus attack 0.916 / def 1.301 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Mantova (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.89
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Vicenza Virtus xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus kick off?
Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Friday 14 May 2027 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
Where is Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus part of?
Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 54% chance of winning, Vicenza Virtus a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Mantova and Vicenza Virtus will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Vicenza Virtus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Vicenza Virtus in?
Mantova (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Vicenza Virtus (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 1.88 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mantova's attack rating (1.07) and Vicenza Virtus's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vicenza Virtus's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
54%
1.87
25%
3.99
21%
4.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.89
Mantova xG
Total xG
3.03
1.14
Vicenza Virtus xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
4.67
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
15%
6.63
Win to Nil
17%
5.86
3%
30.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Mantova and Vicenza Virtus expected to score?
The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Mantova and 1.14 for Vicenza Virtus, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 8 outings, Mantova have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 4W 2D 2L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mantova, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Vicenza Virtus's form line: 2W 3D 3L from 8 games, 1.12 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W. The sample for Vicenza Virtus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Mantova are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vicenza Virtus.
Venue Form
On home soil, Mantova have posted 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L).
On the road, Vicenza Virtus have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Vicenza Virtus are on 1.38 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mantova have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Vicenza Virtus in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Early Season
Vicenza Virtus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Vicenza Virtus in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 4W 2D 2L in their last 8 games (1.75 PPG), while Vicenza Virtus have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Vicenza Virtus away?
Mantova's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.75 PPG; Vicenza Virtus away: 1.25 PPG.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Vicenza Virtus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 50%, Vicenza Virtus 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Mantova and 75% for Vicenza Virtus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Vicenza Virtus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Vicenza Virtus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Mantova's games and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mantova vs Vicenza Virtus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Mantova's matches and 75% of Vicenza Virtus's.
Do Mantova and Vicenza Virtus tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Vicenza Virtus in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.